U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — July 12, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published July 12, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.2% to $1,293 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $13 to $1,442 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $640 to $2,245 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 2.2 pounds from 2.5 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.85 and the simple average price was $3.18.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower decreased by more than 2% week-over-week. The relative frequency of transactions involving greenhouse product increased by the same proportion, while that for outdoor flower was unchanged. Greenhouse product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally expanded by over 8% this week. The relative volumes of warehouse and outdoor flower contracted by about 6% and 3% respectively, relative to the week prior. 

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 1.2% this week to settle at $1,293 per pound, establishing a new year-to-date high after a small decline last week. The upward trend in the national composite price is being observed even in the face of injections of supply from summer light-deprivation crops, particularly in California. However, we have in the past observed wholesale price rises at the outset of light-dep or outdoor harvests, as fresher plant material is more appealing and can garner higher rates than that which was cut down months ago, or even the year prior. Market participants are also reporting lower demand from retailers in the wake of July 4, due to shops stocking up on extra inventory ahead of time. Yet rates in the four major Western markets all ticked upward this week, with Nevada the only large market to see a decline in its Spot.  

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers declined this week as downturns in California and Nevada overwhelmed increases in Colorado, Oregon, and Washington State. Prices for medical flower increased sharply this week thanks to a notable jump in rates for such product in California. Additionally, apart from Maine and Vermont, every medical-only market covered in our reporting saw an increase in its Spot Index this week.

August Forward up $50 to $1,200 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 48.5 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 56%, 29%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 42 pounds, 53 pounds, and 63 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,200 per pound, the August Forward represents a discount of 7.2% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,293 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • Changes to Provisional Licensing Should Expand and Stabilize Number of Businesses Able to Participate in the State’s Licensed System
  •  
  • Colorado

    Volume-Weighted Rates for Indoor Flower Showed Notable Stability through First Half of 2019

  • Oregon

  • Behavior of State Spot Index in Q2 Shows that Wholesale Prices in Oregon Remain Some of Most Volatile in the U.S.
  •  
  • Washington

  • Average Price for Outdoor Flower in Q2 Down Compared to Prior Quarter, Bucking Trends Observed in Other West Coast Markets
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Demand Continues to Boom in State’s Medical Market; YTD Dispensary Sales for H1 2019 up 70% Compared to H1 2018, Retail Revenues for June Up 93% YOY

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

12 July 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — July 5, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published July 3, 2019

For Week Ending July 5, 2019

— Abbreviated Holiday Edition —

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 0.2% to $1,278 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $12 to $1,455 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $651 to $2,259 per pound range. The average reported deal size decreased to 2.5 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.82 and the simple average price was $3.21.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower increased by 2% week-over-week. The relative frequencies of transactions involving greenhouse and outdoor product each decreased by 1%. Warehouse flower’s share of the total documented weight moved expanded by about 2%, while that for greenhouse product grew by roughly 4%. The relative volume of outdoor flower contracted by a corresponding proportion. 

January 2020 Forward initially assessed at $1,055 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was unchanged at 49 pounds. 

 

At $1,150 per pound, the August Forward represents a discount of 10% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,278 per pound.

 

The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

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5 July 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — June 21, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published June 21, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 0.3% to $1,259 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price declined $16 to $1,429 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $619 to $2,238 per pound range. The average reported deal size decreased to 2.5 pounds from 2.7 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.78 and the simple average price was $3.15.

 

The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower increased by 2% week-over-week. The relative frequency of transactions involving indoor and greenhouse product each decreased by 1%. Outdoor product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally also expanded by almost 3% this week. The relative volumes of warehouse and greenhouse flower contracted by about 1% and 2%, respectively, relative to the week prior.  

 

The U.S. Spot Index rose marginally for the second straight week, increasing by 0.3% to settle at $1,259 per pound. This is the fifth consecutive week in which a new annual peak was established for the national composite price. Notable declines in the Spot Indices of California and Nevada this week diminished upward pressure on the national average from rising rates in Colorado, Oregon, and Washington State. As we expand upon below, Oregon’s market is experiencing unprecedented demand in recent months, while available information indicates that sales in Washington in March and April reached near-record levels. In regard to mid-sized markets, wholesale rates in Massachusetts and Michigan were on the upswing this week, but are not climbing as rapidly as they were earlier in the year. Meanwhile, Illinois’ Spot price has trended downward in Q2 after rising to one of the highest in the country at the close of Q1, while increased production in New Mexico is pushing down rates in that market.  

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers jumped this week on increases in Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and Alaska. Prices for medical flower were down this week, due mainly to declines in California, Colorado, Illinois, and New Mexico.  

July Forward unchanged at $1,200 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 50 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 59%, 30%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 42 pounds, 57 pounds, and 64 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,200 per pound, the July Forward represents a discount of 4.7% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,259 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

 

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • Relative Volume of Outdoor Flower Traded in Legal Market is Decreasing in Q2 as Thousands of Temporary Cultivation Licenses Expire
  •  
  • Colorado

    Medical Cannabis Sales in Denver Up Year-Over-Year, Breaking from Statewide Trends

  • Oregon

  • Monthly Retail Revenue Reaches New Record High in May Even as Sales Volume Declines, Indicating Higher Price Points for Customers
  •  
  • Washington

  • Blackout of Plant and Inventory Tracking System Will Prevent Wholesale Trading for 30 Hours Beginning Night of July 13th
  •  
  • Arizona

  • State Spot Index on the Rise in May as New Sales Volume Records Established and State’s Patient Count Tops 200,000
  •  
  • New Mexico

  • State Data Shows Over 75% Expansion of Production in Q1 2019 from Rise in Plant Count Limits, Larger Harvests Pushing Down Spot Index in Current Quarter

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21 June 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — June 14, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published June 14, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 0.4% to $1,256 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $13 to $1,445 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $619 to $2,270 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased to 2.7 pounds from 2.6 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.77 and the simple average price was $3.18.

 

The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower increased by 2% week-over-week. The relative frequency of transactions involving greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion, while that for deals for indoor flower was unchanged. Outdoor product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally also expanded by 2% this week. The relative volume of greenhouse flower contracted by the same proportion, while that for warehouse flower was unchanged.   

 

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 0.4% this week to settle at $1,256 per pound, establishing a new year-to-date peak for the fourth consecutive week. All four of the major Western markets – California, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington – saw upticks in their composite prices this week. Positive trends in rates for outdoor flower in California and Oregon continued to lift the Spot Indices of those states, while volume-weighted prices for greenhouse product in Colorado and Washington rose to year-to-date highs. In contrast to last year at this time, upward price pressure on the national average is also originating from Massachusetts, Michigan, and Nevada. Massachusetts’ young adult-use market generated over $30 million in retail sales in both April and May, as we expand upon further below, after opening in late November last year. 

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers jumped this week on increases in every functioning adult-use market except for Nevada, which saw only a slight decrease. Prices for medical flower were down this week, mainly on declines in California and Arizona.

July Forward assessed up $75 to $1,200 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 48 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 56%, 28%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 41 pounds, 51 pounds, and 64 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,200 per pound, the July Forward represents a discount of 4.4% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,256 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

 

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • Monthly Average Prices in Adult-Use Sector Declined in each Month from January through May, But Weekly Rates for Recreational Flower Are on the Rise Recently
  •  
  • Colorado

    Retail Sales Declined in April, While State Spot Index Stabilized to Close the Month After Early Declines

  • Oregon

  • State Spot Index Jumps to New Annual Peak, Settling Above $700 Per Pound for First Time in 2019
  •  
  • Washington

  • Composite Price Climbs to Year-to-Date High on Rising Rates for Indoor and Greenhouse Flower
  •  
  • Massachusetts

  • Adult-Use Retail Demand and Production Both Increased Significantly in May, as Wholesale Prices Declined by Small Margins
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Retail Medical Cannabis Sales Reached New Record High for Fourth Straight Month in May, Up by Almost 90% Year-Over-Year

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14 June 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — June 7, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published June 7, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.5% to $1,251 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $42 to $1,431 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $617 to $2,246 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 2.6 pounds from 2.8 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.76 and the simple average price was $3.16.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower increased by over 1% week-over-week. The relative frequency of transactions involving greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion, while that for deals for outdoor flower was unchanged. Greenhouse flower’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally expanded by almost 5% this week. The relative volumes of warehouse and outdoor product contracted by about 4% and 1%, respectively, compared to last week.

 

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 1.5% this week to settle at $1,251 per pound, establishing a new year-to-date peak for the third consecutive week. Additionally, this week is the first time in 2019 that the national composite price has been up relative to a year ago, when it settled at $1,237 per pound in the opening week of June. While the large adult-use markets have garnered much of our attention, numerous medical markets – such as in Illinois, Rhode Island, and Connecticut – have seen growing patient counts and demand push up wholesale rates. Meanwhile, prices have also been on the rise in other mid-sized markets such as Massachusetts, Michigan, and Maine, due to the opening of adult-use sales in the former case and the implementation of new regulatory structures in the latter two.  

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers jumped this week on increases in every functioning adult-use market except for Colorado. Prices for medical flower were up slightly this week. Declines in California and Arizona dampened increases observed in every other medical market covered in our reporting.

December Forward initially assessed at $1,065 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 47 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 56%, 29%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 41 pounds, 51 pounds, and 65 pounds, respectively.

 

Implied Forward Prices for July and August have been assessed upward, as can be seen in the table below. Historical sales trends in the more mature adult-use markets show that demand increases as the summer months wear on. Furthermore, wholesale buyers in Oregon and Washington have recently begun to show a willingness to pay higher prices, perhaps due to crops harvested in previous years losing their appeal. Finally, California’s supply chain appears to be undergoing a turbulent period and is losing production capacity, but the market landscape could settle by late summer or early autumn.

 

At $1,125 per pound, the July Forward represents a discount of 10.1% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,251 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

 

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • State Spot Index Rises to New Annual Peak as Prices in Adult-Use Sector Spike by Over 20%
  •  
  • Colorado

    Wholesale Prices Trending Downward Gradually, as Other Major Adult-Use Markets See Upticks in Rates

  • Oregon

  • Monthly Average Price for May Up by 16% from April, With Upward Movement Continuing to Open June
  •  
  • Washington

  • State Spot Index Has Stabilized Since Mid-May, After Rising from Outset of 2019
  •  
  • Nevada

  • Retail Sales Up Over 20% Month-Over-Month in March to Set New Record for State’s Market, First Major Increase in Monthly Revenue in a Year

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

7 June 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — May 31, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published May 31, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 3.1% to $1,233 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $75 to $1,389 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $612 to $2,166 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.8 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.72 and the simple average price was $3.06.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower decreased by almost 2% week-over-week. The relative frequency of transactions involving greenhouse product increased by the same proportion, while that for deals for outdoor flower was unchanged. Warehouse flower’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally expanded by almost 5% this week. The relative volumes of greenhouse and outdoor product contracted by about 3% and 1%, respectively, compared to last week.

 

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 3.1% this week to settle at $1,233 per pound, a new year-to-date peak and the highest that the national composite rate has been observed to settle since June 2018. Upward-trending prices in California continue to be the primary driver of the recent positive movement in the national average. State tax collection data for Q1 shows that the excise tax on retailers rose by over 10% from Q4 2018, while only slightly more flower and less trim entered the commercial market, indicating that demand has increased while supply stagnated early this year. A rise in Colorado’s Spot also provided upward pressure on the U.S. composite rate this week, although the nation’s most mature market continues to show the greatest stability in wholesale pricing of the four major Western states in 2019.   

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets rose again this week on increases in Colorado and Nevada. Prices for medical flower were up this week on rising rates in California, Arizona, Michigan, Maine, Connecticut, and D.C.  

June Forward closes up $50 at $1,125 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 46.5 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 58%, 26%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 40 pounds, 51 pounds, and 62 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,125 per pound, the June Forward represents a discount of 8.7% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,233 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • Tax Department Data Shows Volume of Wholesale Flower Entering Commercial Market in Q1 2019 Expanded by Only 1% – 2% from Q4 2018
  •  
  • Colorado

    Average Size of Wholesale Transactions Cut in Half from a Year Ago

  • Oregon

  • Volume of Flower Purchased at Licensed Retailers in First Four Months of 2019 Up About 40% Year-Over-Year
  •  
  • Washington

  • Price for Indoor Flower Reaches New Year-to-Date High, Settles Above Rate for Warehouse Product in Colorado for First Time Since March 2018
  •  
  • Arizona

  • Bill to Require Quality Assurance and Safety Testing of Medical Cannabis Products Approved by the Legislature and Sent to Governor
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Adult-Use Legalization Bill Approved by State Senate as Additional Concerns Raised About Availability of Supply, Anti-Competitive Character of Potential New Market
  •  

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31 May 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — May 24, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published May 24, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 6.5% to $1,196 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $78 to $1,314 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $556 to $2,072 per pound range. The average reported deal size decreased nearly 15% to 2.8 pounds from 3.3 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.64 and the simple average price was $2.90.

 

The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower decreased by 3% week-over-week. The relative frequency of transactions involving indoor and greenhouse product both increased, by 1% and 2%, respectively. Outdoor product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally contracted by 10% this week. The relative volumes of warehouse and greenhouse flower expanded by 5% each compared to last week.

 

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 6.5% this week to settle at $1,196 per pound, a new year-to-date high and the first time that the national price observed in the opening week of this year has been exceeded. Significant increases in the Spot Indices of California and Oregon were the primary drivers of the uptick in the national rate. Perhaps just as influential, though, was a contraction in the relative volume of outdoor flower. Wholesale buyers in Oregon continue to state that much of what is on offer is undesirable. Additionally, licensed growers in California are becoming fewer, while more are required to employ the state’s track-and-trace system, theoretically reducing the porousness of the state’s licensed market to unlicensed production.   

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets jumped this week on notable increases in California and Oregon. Rising prices in Nevada’s market also provided upward pressure on the U.S. rate for product designated as recreational.

 

Prices for medical flower were up this week on rising rates in California, Colorado, Arizona, Michigan, and Connecticut.  

June Forward up $40 at $1,075 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 44 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 55%, 30%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 39 pounds, 49 pounds, and 51 pounds, respectively.

 

Monthly Implied Forward Prices for June through October increased this week. Trends in cultivation licensing in California, the country’s largest legal cannabis market, are leading to fewer permitted operators overall, as we discussed in detail in last week’s report.

 

Meanwhile, those California growers that are able to gain annual or provisional licenses are required to use the state’s track-and-trace system, leading to the regulated market becoming increasingly closed off to unlicensed production. Reports from the field indicate that this should tighten supply progressively, at least until the fall harvest.

 

At $1,075 per pound, the June Forward represents a discount of 10.1% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,196 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • State Spot Index Ascends to Highest Point Since January, As Volume-Weighted Price for Outdoor Flower Reaches New Annual Peak
  •  
  • Colorado

    Overall Stability in Wholesale Pricing Observed in Nation’s Most Mature Market This Year, But Modest Downward Trend Has Developed in Recent Weeks

  • Oregon

  • State Spot Index Jumps to Settle Just Below Current Year-to-Date High
  •  
  • Washington

  • Bill That Would Have Allowed Business Owners to Hold More Licenses and Permitted Some Out-of-State Investment Did Not Pass This Year
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Retail Demand in April Up 81% Year-Over-Year, Yet Wholesale Prices Fell for the First Time in 2019

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24 May 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — May 17, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published May 17, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.6% to $1,123 per pound. The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $23 to $1,236 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $510 to $1,961 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased 7% to 3.3 pounds from 3.1 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.48 and the simple average price was $2.72.

 

The relative frequency of trades for greenhouse flower increased by 2%. The relative frequency of transactions involving outdoor product decreased by the same proportion, while that for deals involving indoor flower was unchanged. Outdoor product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally grew by 2% this week. The relative volumes of warehouse and greenhouse flower both contracted by 1% compared to last week.  

 

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 1.6% this week to settle at $1,123 per pound, matching the national average composite rate documented two weeks ago. Rumblings of undesirable inventory in Oregon’s ostensibly oversupplied market and a shrinking pool of licensed cultivators in California appear to be contributing to the modest upswing in national wholesale prices. The Spot Indices of Washington and Nevada are also currently experiencing recoveries after sinking to historic lows for those markets earlier this year. Further upward pressure on supply side rates is originating from smaller medical cannabis markets that are experiencing significant increases in demand in 2019. Still, the U.S. Spot has demonstrated relative steadiness so far this year, underpinned by stability in pricing in California and Colorado, the country’s two largest markets.    

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets once again declined marginally this week, due almost entirely to a decrease in that sector of California’s market. Falling prices in Alaska also provided some downward pressure on the national rate.

 

Prices for medical product were up this week on rising rates in California, Arizona, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

June Forward unchanged at $1,035 per pound. The average reported forward deal size was 42 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 55%, 31%, and 14% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 36 pounds, 49 pounds, and 48 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,035 per pound, the June Forward represents a discount of 7.9% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,123 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • Review of Cultivation Licensing Data Shows Less Than 1,200 Distinct Growing Operations Now Hold Active, Valid Licenses
  •  
  • Colorado

    Total Retail Sales and Revenues from Adult-Use Market Both Reached New Record Highs in March, As State Spot Index Rose Slightly

  • Oregon

  • Retail Sales Revenue and Volume Down Slightly in April, Monthly Spot Index Off by Almost 7% from March
  •  
  • Washington

  • State Composite Price Down by 17% Year-Over-Year, But is Up by Over 23% Since Start of 2019
  •  
  • Arizona

  • Sales Volume to Patients Climbed to Historic Peak in April; Day of 4/20 Accounted for 10% of Total Monthly Sales

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17 May 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — May 10, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published May 10, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.6% to $1,105 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $26 to $1,212 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $455 to $1,969 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased nearly 6% to 3.1 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.44 and the simple average price was $2.67.

 

The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower increased by 2%. The relative frequency of transactions involving indoor and greenhouse product both decreased by 1% week-over-week. Warehouse flower’s share of the total reported weight moved contracted by 6% this week. The relative volume of outdoor product expanded by the same proportion, while that for greenhouse flower was flat compared to last week.

 

The U.S. Spot Index fell by 1.6% this week to settle at $1,105 per pound. The overall decrease in the national composite price was due to a greater prevalence of lower-priced outdoor flower observed in the supply mix this week. From a state-level perspective, declines in California and Washington State accompanied the downturn in the U.S. Spot, although going rates in smaller markets such as Alaska, Illinois, and New Mexico also provided negative pressure on the national average. It is possible that this week’s decline signals the beginning of a post-4/20 slide in wholesale prices that has been observed nationally and in virtually all of the major markets in both 2017 and 2018, as we detailed in our report for April 19th. However, regulatory turbulence in California and Michigan may result in upward pressure on wholesale rates in the weeks to come, while prices in the other major markets of Colorado, Oregon, and Washington have demonstrated relative stability recently.    

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets declined marginally this week, as decreases in California, Washington, and Alaska outweighed increases in Colorado, Oregon, and Nevada. Prices for medical product were down this week on declines in California, Colorado, Illinois, and New Mexico.         

June Forward unchanged at $1,035 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 41 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 56%, 31%, and 13% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 35 pounds, 49 pounds, and 50 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,035 per pound, the June Forward represents a discount of 6.3% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,105 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • State Spot Index Drops Sharply, Settling Below $1,100 Per Pound and Approaching Current Annual Low
  •  
  • Colorado

    Number of Adult-Use Storefronts Up Compared to a Year Ago, While Medical Dispensaries and Active Cultivation Licenses of Both Types all Decreased

  • Oregon

  • State Data Shows Retail Revenue and Flower Sales Volume Set New Records in March, but Wholesale Prices Still Declined Despite Historic Demand
  •  
  • Washington

  • State Spot Index Down Almost 20% Year-Over-Year Due Mainly to Declines in Prices for Greenhouse and Outdoor Flower
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Recently-Introduced Adult-Use Legalization Bill Will License New “Craft Cultivators” but Not Larger-Scale Growers, Raising Concerns About Supply

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

10 May 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — May 3, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published May 3, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 2.3% to $1,123 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $35 to $1,186 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $425 to $1,948 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased to 2.9 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.48 and the simple average price was $2.62.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower increased by 4%. The relative frequency of transactions involving outdoor product decreased by the same proportion, while that for greenhouse flower was unchanged. Warehouse product’s share of the total reported weight moved grew by 2% this week. The relative volume of greenhouse flower contracted by the same proportion, while that for outdoor product was flat compared to last week.

 

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 2.3% this week to settle at $1,123 per pound. The five largest adult-use markets – California, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and Nevada – all saw increases in their composite prices for the second consecutive week. As we have noted in prior reports, this year’s observations of depressed national wholesale prices in late March, followed by rising rates through April and into May, are the opposite of behavior documented in both 2017 and 2018. As we expand upon below, sharp decreases in the amount of licensed cultivators active in California’s regulated market may be contributing to upward price pressure in the Golden State, while retail demand in Colorado was up through the early months of this year after largely plateauing in 2018. Nevada’s Spot Index has been on the upswing for a month straight now, after sinking to a historic low for the state at the beginning of April.  

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets rose once again this week on increases in Colorado, Oregon, Washington State, Nevada, and Alaska. California again saw a week-over-week downturn in its adult-use sector. Prices for medical product were also on the rise this week on increases in California, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and Maine.      

November 2019 Forward initially assessed at $975 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 40 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 57%, 30%, and 13% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 32 pounds, 50 pounds, and 51 pounds, respectively.

 

The November 2019 Forward is initially assessed at $975 per pound, matching the October 2019 Forward. For context, the U.S. Spot Index averaged $1,076 and $1,075 in October and November 2018, respectively; and $1,421 and $1,412 in October and November 2017, respectively.

 

At $1,035 per pound, the June Forward represents a discount of 7.8% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,123 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

     

  • Number of All Active Cultivation Licenses Down Almost 50% from End of 2018
  • Licensed Retailers in Los Angeles Generated Over $375 Million in Total Sales Last Year
  •  
  • Colorado

    Monthly Spot Index for April is Lowest Observed So Far in 2019

  • Oregon

  • Composite Price Up for Third Consecutive Week on Rising Rates for Greenhouse & Outdoor Flower
  •  
  • Washington

  • State Spot Index Rises to Year-to-Date High for Second Straight Week, Settling Above $600 Per Pound for First Time in 2019
  •  
  • Massachusetts

  • April Adult-Use Sales Increase by 25% Month-Over-Month, But State Spot Index Down as Production Expands
  •  
  • Michigan

  • Licensed Dispensaries No Longer Permitted to Purchase Product from Caregivers, Must Obtain Tested Inventory from Licensed Cultivators and Processors
  •  
  • New Mexico

  • Health Department Update Shows New Plant Counts for Licensed Producers, Statewide Production Capacity Up 4.5X Compared to Previous Limits

Are you a licensed market participant in the U.S. or Canada? 

Do you support wholesale market transparency?

Become a member of our Price Contributor Network and receive discounted pricing and exclusive analysis!

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 May 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved