CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — AUGUST 31, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED AUGUST 31, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 0.7% to $1,117 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $5 to $1,317 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $537 to $2,097 per pound range. The average deal size declined by 3.7% from 4.7 pounds to 4.5 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.46, and the simple average price was $2.90.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor-grown flower decreased by 1% this week, with the entirety of the corresponding increase accruing to transactions involving greenhouse product. Warehouse flower also saw a slight contraction in its share of the total reported weight moved, while the relative volume of outdoor product also declined, by about 2% week-over-week. As a result, greenhouse flower’s share of the total observed volume traded this week was up by over 2% compared to last week.

The national volume-weighted rate for greenhouse flower fell to a historic low for that price assessment, at $924 per pound. Greenhouse product in Washington State saw its going rate this week slip to the lowest ever observed for that grow type in any market, at $644 per pound. California’s Spot Index declined to $1,101 per pound, an all-time low for the Golden State. Alaska’s Spot Index dropped to a year-to-date low of $3,944 per pound this week.   

The histogram below show price dispersion by grow type for August 2018. The proportion of outdoor-grown flower transacting at $400 per pound or less has more than doubled, from 17% in July to 39% in August. The oversupply in Western markets is well-documented, and the perennial objective of selling off inventory ahead of the fall outdoor harvest is expected. The price decline, however, is dramatic, with the August U.S. Spot Price for outdoor-grown flower averaging $676 per pound in 2018 vs. $1,101 in 2017, a 39% decrease.

September Forward closes at $1,150 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal increased to 64.5 pounds this week, from 57 pounds last week. The increase in forward deal size was driven predominately by forwards in the West for outdoor-grown flower, including deals ranging from 200 to 800 pounds per month. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 40%, 40%, and 20% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 94 pounds, 43 pounds, and 40 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,150 per pound, the September Forward represents a premium of 2.9% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,117 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

 Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    State Spot Index Stable in Final Week of August, But Monthly Average Composite Price Down 1.4% from July

  • Colorado

    Rise in Wholesale Prices Observed Ahead of Labor Day Weekend in 2017 Not Repeated this Year, as State Spot Index is Stable to Close August

  • Oregon

    Trailing 4-Week Average Composite Price Falls Below That of Washington State for the First Time Since June 2016

  • Washington

    Volume-Weighted Price for Greenhouse Flower Slips to Record Low for Any Market at Less than $650 Per Pound, But Spot Index Rises for Fifth Consecutive Week

  • Nevada

  • Spot Index Declines in June as Total Retail Demand Slips Slightly Month-Over-Month
  •  
  • Illinois
  • New Law Could Result in Increased Demand in State’s Medical Program, Where Wholesale Prices Have Already Been Rising for Most of 2018

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — AUGUST 24, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED AUGUST 24, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 0.8% to $1,109 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $28 to $1,322 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $537 to $2,107 per pound range. The average deal size declined by 2.3% from 4.8 pounds to 4.7 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.45, and the simple average price was $2.91.

 

National Transaction Stats this week continued the relative stability that has marked most of this summer. The relative frequency of trades for outdoor-grown product expanded slightly, by less than 1% compared to last week, with the corresponding declines not discernible in the chart below. Each grow type’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide this week was virtually identical to those observed last week.        

The U.S. Spot Index slipped by almost 1% this week to establish a new all-time low for the national composite price, with the overall decline underpinned by dips in the volume-weighted average rates of indoor and outdoor product. Average deal sizes shrank across the board for the second consecutive week. Average volumes of transactions involving greenhouse flower have been the most stable recently, however, despite the persistent declines.   

In addition to the U.S. Spot price falling to establish a new historic low, state-level composite rates in California and Oregon did the same for those markets, declining to $1,102 and $662 per pound, respectively. Additionally, the volume-weighted average price for outdoor flower in Oregon once again sank to a historic low for that grow type in any market, dropping to $371 per pound this week.

The U.S. Cannabis Spot Index

  • Opened 2016 at $2,030 and closed at $1,615, down 20%

  • Opened 2017 at $1,532 and closed at $1,436, down 6%

  • Opened 2018 at $1,503 and closed 24th of August at $1,109, down 26% YTD

 

September Forward unchanged at $1,150 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal declined more than ten pounds to 57 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 39%, 42%, and 19% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 76 pounds, 48 pounds, and 39 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,150 per pound, the September Forward represents a premium of 3.7% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,109 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

 

Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    State Spot Index Drops to All-Time Low for California’s Market, Approaching $1,100 Per Pound

  • Colorado

    Over 75% of Reported Volume Traded Sold for $1,000 Per Pound or Below in Recent Weeks

  • Oregon

    State Spot Index Descends Again, Sinking Below $675 Per Pound and Settling Just Above the Current Historic Low for Any Market

  • Washington

    Wholesale Prices Continue to Trend Upward Gradually, As Reports Surface that Some Producers May Be Holding Back Inventory

  • Arizona

  • Strong Sales and Patient Growth Continue in July, Pushing State Spot Index to First Month-Over-Month Rise Thus Far in 2018

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — AUGUST 17, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED AUGUST 17, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 0.5% to $1,118 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $5 to $1,350 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $562 to $2,139 per pound range. The average deal size declined by 6.2% from 5.1 pounds to 4.8 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.47, and the simple average price was $2.98.

The relative frequency of trades involving both indoor and greenhouse-grown flower were observed to decline marginally this week, by less than 1% each. The relative frequency of transactions for outdoor product consequently increased by less than 2%. Greenhouse and outdoor flower both saw their shares of the total reported weight moved expand by 1% each. As a result, warehouse product’s relative volume contracted by 2% week-over-week.        

The U.S. Spot Index ticked upward slightly this week, with increases in the volume-weighted prices for indoor and outdoor flower lifting the overall composite rate. Average deal sizes continued to shrink, although that for greenhouse product was stable for the most part. The mean composite transaction volume for the U.S. as a whole followed last week’s almost 10% decrease with another notable contraction.   

The U.S. volume-weighted rate for greenhouse flower fell to establish another historic low for that grow type on the national level, settling this week at $939 per pound. Oregon’s state Spot Index slipped to an all-time low for that market, while the state’s volume-weighted price for outdoor product this week – $398 per pound – is the lowest ever observed for that grow type in any market. On the other end of the spectrum, warehouse flower in Michigan ascended to a year-to-date high this week of $2,040 per pound.   

September Forward assessed down $50 to $1,150 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal was just under 68 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 45%, 40%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 92 pounds, 55 pounds, and 42 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,150 per pound, the September Forward represents a premium of 2.8% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,118 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Current Major Wildfires Reported to Have Small Impact on Wholesale Market, With Forecasted Harvest Season Conditions Favorable for Both a Robust Crop and More Fires

  • Colorado

    Total Retail Sales for June Up Marginally Year-Over-Year, But State Spot Index Slid in that Month Even with Elevated Summer Demand

  • Oregon

    State Spot Index Slips Below $700 Per Pound, Falls Below Washington State’s to Become Lowest in the Country

  • Washington

    Composite Rate Reported to be on the Rise for the Third Consecutive Week

  • Michigan

  • Opening of Licensed Commercial Medical Market Imminent with Testing Labs Recently Approved for State Licenses
  • Volume-Weighted Price for Indoor Flower Ascends to Year-to-Date High

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — AUGUST 10, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED AUGUST 10, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.2% to $1,113 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $14 to $1,345 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $577 to $2,133 per pound range. The average deal size declined by 10% from 5.7 pounds to 5.1 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.45, and the simple average price was $2.97.

 

The relative frequency of trades involving greenhouse-grown flower was reported to increase this week, by 2% compared to last week. The resulting decline was split evenly between deals for the other two grow types. However, greenhouse product saw its share of the total documented weight moved shrink slightly, by 1% week-over-week, as did the relative volume of outdoor flower. Consequently, indoor product’s relative volume increased by 2% compared to last week.      

The U.S. Spot Index resumed its negative momentum this week. The national composite price and the volume-weighted averages of all three grow types declined, erasing the modest gains made last week. Average deal sizes also contracted across the board. While shrinking average transaction volumes have been common so far in 2018, the magnitude with which the two sun-fueled grow types saw their average deal sizes decrease this week is notable.  

The national volume-weighted average for product wholesaled in adult-use markets declined marginally this week, as falling prices in Colorado and a drop of over $100 per pound in Oregon overwhelmed upticks in California, Washington, and Nevada. Increases in the medical markets of California, Michigan, Illinois, and Maine lifted the national rate for flower to be sold to registered patients very slightly.  

September Forward unchanged at $1,200 per pound. The average reported forward deal declined 2 pounds to 67 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 45%, 40%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 85 pounds, 55 pounds, and 44 pounds, respectively.

At $1,200 per pound, the September Forward represents a premium of 7.9% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,113 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California
  • Composite Price in the Adult-Use Sector Reported to Jump by Almost 14% Week-Over-Week, But Statewide Greenhouse and Outdoor Rates Slide Downward
  •  
  • Colorado
  • Volume-Weighted Price for Indoor Flower Again Reaches An All-Time Low for Colorado, While Rates for Greenhouse Product Largely Stable
  •  
  • Oregon
  • State Spot Index Plummets to New Historic Low for Oregon, Closing Below $750 Per Pound This Week
  •  
  • Washington
  • Wholesale Prices Climb for Second Straight Week, Recalling 2017’s Pre-Memorial Day Increase
  •  
  • Alaska
  • As of June, Licensed Cultivators Exceeded Total Volume of Flower Sold Wholesale for All of 2017
  •  
  • Illinois
  • Demand Remains Strong in July as Retail Sales Top $10 Million for Fifth Straight Month; But State Spot Index Levels Off as Wholesale Revenues Shrink
  •  
  • Pennsylvania
  • Early Reports of Wholesale Flower Prices Indicate that State’s Medical Cannabis Market is Among the Most Expensive in the Country

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — AUGUST 3, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED AUGUST 3, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.0% to $1,126 per pound. 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $5 to $1,331 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $574 to $2,088 per pound range. The average deal size was nominally unchanged at 5.7 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.48, and the simple average price was $2.93.


National Transaction Stats this week maintained the relative stability that has characterized them for most of the summer to this point. The relative frequency of trades for each grow type was essentially unchanged compared to last week. Greenhouse-grown flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide contracted very slightly week-over-week, by about 1%, resulting in marginal upticks in the relative volumes of the other two grow types. Summers in prior years have seen increases in the relative volume of greenhouse product.     

The U.S. Spot Index saw its recent downward slide disrupted this week. A small uptick in the national composite price was underpinned by slight rises in the volume-weighted averages of each individual grow type. Average deal sizes were also fairly stable, although all such metrics were observed to contract somewhat compared to last week. Still, no average transaction volume shrank by more than a tenth of a pound in absolute terms.  

This week’s modest increase in the weekly U.S. Spot was not enough to disrupt the persistent downward trend of its Trailing 4-Week Average. However, the trend lines of some state-level Spot Indices are exhibiting changes in behavior. That of Washington State, which this week is displaying discernible upward momentum for the first time this year, is the most notable. Additionally, the Trailing 4-Week average of California’s composite price appears essentially flat, but is actually off by just a few dollars compared to that which was documented last week. The trend lines of the other major and secondary markets depicted in the chart below generally continued their recent behavior this week. 

February 2019 Forward initially assessed at $1,065 per pound.

The average reported forward deal was 69 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 44%, 40%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 90 pounds, 56 pounds, and 44 pounds, respectively.


At $1,200 per pound, the September Forward represents a premium of 6.6% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,126 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

California

  • Early Data on Results of New Required Testing Show that Only 6% of Batches Are Failing Screenings that Require Product to be Removed from Circulation
  • With Advent of Licensing and Regulation, Severe Wildfire Season Could Have Greater Impact on Wholesale Pricing Than in Prior Years

Colorado

  • Wholesale Pricing Stabilizes Momentarily, Disrupting Downward Slide Extending from Early June, As Required Pesticide Testing is Implemented

Oregon

  • Retail Sales Revenue from Flower Down Marginally in June 2018 compared to June 2017, Despite Volume of Product Sold Increasing Almost 60%

Washington

  • State Spot Index Experiences Largest Increase Observed Thus Far in 2018, But Remains the Lowest in the Country

Nevada

  • Total Retail Sales Up Slightly Month-Over-Month in May, While Tax Collections on Wholesale Trading and State Spot Index Decline 

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved