CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — AUGUST 31, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED AUGUST 31, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 0.7% to $1,117 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $5 to $1,317 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $537 to $2,097 per pound range. The average deal size declined by 3.7% from 4.7 pounds to 4.5 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.46, and the simple average price was $2.90.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor-grown flower decreased by 1% this week, with the entirety of the corresponding increase accruing to transactions involving greenhouse product. Warehouse flower also saw a slight contraction in its share of the total reported weight moved, while the relative volume of outdoor product also declined, by about 2% week-over-week. As a result, greenhouse flower’s share of the total observed volume traded this week was up by over 2% compared to last week.

The national volume-weighted rate for greenhouse flower fell to a historic low for that price assessment, at $924 per pound. Greenhouse product in Washington State saw its going rate this week slip to the lowest ever observed for that grow type in any market, at $644 per pound. California’s Spot Index declined to $1,101 per pound, an all-time low for the Golden State. Alaska’s Spot Index dropped to a year-to-date low of $3,944 per pound this week.   

The histogram below show price dispersion by grow type for August 2018. The proportion of outdoor-grown flower transacting at $400 per pound or less has more than doubled, from 17% in July to 39% in August. The oversupply in Western markets is well-documented, and the perennial objective of selling off inventory ahead of the fall outdoor harvest is expected. The price decline, however, is dramatic, with the August U.S. Spot Price for outdoor-grown flower averaging $676 per pound in 2018 vs. $1,101 in 2017, a 39% decrease.

September Forward closes at $1,150 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal increased to 64.5 pounds this week, from 57 pounds last week. The increase in forward deal size was driven predominately by forwards in the West for outdoor-grown flower, including deals ranging from 200 to 800 pounds per month. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 40%, 40%, and 20% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 94 pounds, 43 pounds, and 40 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,150 per pound, the September Forward represents a premium of 2.9% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,117 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

 Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    State Spot Index Stable in Final Week of August, But Monthly Average Composite Price Down 1.4% from July

  • Colorado

    Rise in Wholesale Prices Observed Ahead of Labor Day Weekend in 2017 Not Repeated this Year, as State Spot Index is Stable to Close August

  • Oregon

    Trailing 4-Week Average Composite Price Falls Below That of Washington State for the First Time Since June 2016

  • Washington

    Volume-Weighted Price for Greenhouse Flower Slips to Record Low for Any Market at Less than $650 Per Pound, But Spot Index Rises for Fifth Consecutive Week

  • Nevada

  • Spot Index Declines in June as Total Retail Demand Slips Slightly Month-Over-Month
  •  
  • Illinois
  • New Law Could Result in Increased Demand in State’s Medical Program, Where Wholesale Prices Have Already Been Rising for Most of 2018

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — AUGUST 24, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED AUGUST 24, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 0.8% to $1,109 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $28 to $1,322 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $537 to $2,107 per pound range. The average deal size declined by 2.3% from 4.8 pounds to 4.7 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.45, and the simple average price was $2.91.

 

National Transaction Stats this week continued the relative stability that has marked most of this summer. The relative frequency of trades for outdoor-grown product expanded slightly, by less than 1% compared to last week, with the corresponding declines not discernible in the chart below. Each grow type’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide this week was virtually identical to those observed last week.        

The U.S. Spot Index slipped by almost 1% this week to establish a new all-time low for the national composite price, with the overall decline underpinned by dips in the volume-weighted average rates of indoor and outdoor product. Average deal sizes shrank across the board for the second consecutive week. Average volumes of transactions involving greenhouse flower have been the most stable recently, however, despite the persistent declines.   

In addition to the U.S. Spot price falling to establish a new historic low, state-level composite rates in California and Oregon did the same for those markets, declining to $1,102 and $662 per pound, respectively. Additionally, the volume-weighted average price for outdoor flower in Oregon once again sank to a historic low for that grow type in any market, dropping to $371 per pound this week.

The U.S. Cannabis Spot Index

  • Opened 2016 at $2,030 and closed at $1,615, down 20%

  • Opened 2017 at $1,532 and closed at $1,436, down 6%

  • Opened 2018 at $1,503 and closed 24th of August at $1,109, down 26% YTD

 

September Forward unchanged at $1,150 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal declined more than ten pounds to 57 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 39%, 42%, and 19% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 76 pounds, 48 pounds, and 39 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,150 per pound, the September Forward represents a premium of 3.7% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,109 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

 

Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    State Spot Index Drops to All-Time Low for California’s Market, Approaching $1,100 Per Pound

  • Colorado

    Over 75% of Reported Volume Traded Sold for $1,000 Per Pound or Below in Recent Weeks

  • Oregon

    State Spot Index Descends Again, Sinking Below $675 Per Pound and Settling Just Above the Current Historic Low for Any Market

  • Washington

    Wholesale Prices Continue to Trend Upward Gradually, As Reports Surface that Some Producers May Be Holding Back Inventory

  • Arizona

  • Strong Sales and Patient Growth Continue in July, Pushing State Spot Index to First Month-Over-Month Rise Thus Far in 2018

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — AUGUST 17, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED AUGUST 17, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 0.5% to $1,118 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $5 to $1,350 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $562 to $2,139 per pound range. The average deal size declined by 6.2% from 5.1 pounds to 4.8 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.47, and the simple average price was $2.98.

The relative frequency of trades involving both indoor and greenhouse-grown flower were observed to decline marginally this week, by less than 1% each. The relative frequency of transactions for outdoor product consequently increased by less than 2%. Greenhouse and outdoor flower both saw their shares of the total reported weight moved expand by 1% each. As a result, warehouse product’s relative volume contracted by 2% week-over-week.        

The U.S. Spot Index ticked upward slightly this week, with increases in the volume-weighted prices for indoor and outdoor flower lifting the overall composite rate. Average deal sizes continued to shrink, although that for greenhouse product was stable for the most part. The mean composite transaction volume for the U.S. as a whole followed last week’s almost 10% decrease with another notable contraction.   

The U.S. volume-weighted rate for greenhouse flower fell to establish another historic low for that grow type on the national level, settling this week at $939 per pound. Oregon’s state Spot Index slipped to an all-time low for that market, while the state’s volume-weighted price for outdoor product this week – $398 per pound – is the lowest ever observed for that grow type in any market. On the other end of the spectrum, warehouse flower in Michigan ascended to a year-to-date high this week of $2,040 per pound.   

September Forward assessed down $50 to $1,150 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal was just under 68 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 45%, 40%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 92 pounds, 55 pounds, and 42 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,150 per pound, the September Forward represents a premium of 2.8% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,118 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Current Major Wildfires Reported to Have Small Impact on Wholesale Market, With Forecasted Harvest Season Conditions Favorable for Both a Robust Crop and More Fires

  • Colorado

    Total Retail Sales for June Up Marginally Year-Over-Year, But State Spot Index Slid in that Month Even with Elevated Summer Demand

  • Oregon

    State Spot Index Slips Below $700 Per Pound, Falls Below Washington State’s to Become Lowest in the Country

  • Washington

    Composite Rate Reported to be on the Rise for the Third Consecutive Week

  • Michigan

  • Opening of Licensed Commercial Medical Market Imminent with Testing Labs Recently Approved for State Licenses
  • Volume-Weighted Price for Indoor Flower Ascends to Year-to-Date High

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved