CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — AUGUST 10, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED AUGUST 10, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.2% to $1,113 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $14 to $1,345 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $577 to $2,133 per pound range. The average deal size declined by 10% from 5.7 pounds to 5.1 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.45, and the simple average price was $2.97.

 

The relative frequency of trades involving greenhouse-grown flower was reported to increase this week, by 2% compared to last week. The resulting decline was split evenly between deals for the other two grow types. However, greenhouse product saw its share of the total documented weight moved shrink slightly, by 1% week-over-week, as did the relative volume of outdoor flower. Consequently, indoor product’s relative volume increased by 2% compared to last week.      

The U.S. Spot Index resumed its negative momentum this week. The national composite price and the volume-weighted averages of all three grow types declined, erasing the modest gains made last week. Average deal sizes also contracted across the board. While shrinking average transaction volumes have been common so far in 2018, the magnitude with which the two sun-fueled grow types saw their average deal sizes decrease this week is notable.  

The national volume-weighted average for product wholesaled in adult-use markets declined marginally this week, as falling prices in Colorado and a drop of over $100 per pound in Oregon overwhelmed upticks in California, Washington, and Nevada. Increases in the medical markets of California, Michigan, Illinois, and Maine lifted the national rate for flower to be sold to registered patients very slightly.  

September Forward unchanged at $1,200 per pound. The average reported forward deal declined 2 pounds to 67 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 45%, 40%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 85 pounds, 55 pounds, and 44 pounds, respectively.

At $1,200 per pound, the September Forward represents a premium of 7.9% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,113 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California
  • Composite Price in the Adult-Use Sector Reported to Jump by Almost 14% Week-Over-Week, But Statewide Greenhouse and Outdoor Rates Slide Downward
  •  
  • Colorado
  • Volume-Weighted Price for Indoor Flower Again Reaches An All-Time Low for Colorado, While Rates for Greenhouse Product Largely Stable
  •  
  • Oregon
  • State Spot Index Plummets to New Historic Low for Oregon, Closing Below $750 Per Pound This Week
  •  
  • Washington
  • Wholesale Prices Climb for Second Straight Week, Recalling 2017’s Pre-Memorial Day Increase
  •  
  • Alaska
  • As of June, Licensed Cultivators Exceeded Total Volume of Flower Sold Wholesale for All of 2017
  •  
  • Illinois
  • Demand Remains Strong in July as Retail Sales Top $10 Million for Fifth Straight Month; But State Spot Index Levels Off as Wholesale Revenues Shrink
  •  
  • Pennsylvania
  • Early Reports of Wholesale Flower Prices Indicate that State’s Medical Cannabis Market is Among the Most Expensive in the Country

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — AUGUST 3, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED AUGUST 3, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.0% to $1,126 per pound. 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $5 to $1,331 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $574 to $2,088 per pound range. The average deal size was nominally unchanged at 5.7 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.48, and the simple average price was $2.93.


National Transaction Stats this week maintained the relative stability that has characterized them for most of the summer to this point. The relative frequency of trades for each grow type was essentially unchanged compared to last week. Greenhouse-grown flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide contracted very slightly week-over-week, by about 1%, resulting in marginal upticks in the relative volumes of the other two grow types. Summers in prior years have seen increases in the relative volume of greenhouse product.     

The U.S. Spot Index saw its recent downward slide disrupted this week. A small uptick in the national composite price was underpinned by slight rises in the volume-weighted averages of each individual grow type. Average deal sizes were also fairly stable, although all such metrics were observed to contract somewhat compared to last week. Still, no average transaction volume shrank by more than a tenth of a pound in absolute terms.  

This week’s modest increase in the weekly U.S. Spot was not enough to disrupt the persistent downward trend of its Trailing 4-Week Average. However, the trend lines of some state-level Spot Indices are exhibiting changes in behavior. That of Washington State, which this week is displaying discernible upward momentum for the first time this year, is the most notable. Additionally, the Trailing 4-Week average of California’s composite price appears essentially flat, but is actually off by just a few dollars compared to that which was documented last week. The trend lines of the other major and secondary markets depicted in the chart below generally continued their recent behavior this week. 

February 2019 Forward initially assessed at $1,065 per pound.

The average reported forward deal was 69 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 44%, 40%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 90 pounds, 56 pounds, and 44 pounds, respectively.


At $1,200 per pound, the September Forward represents a premium of 6.6% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,126 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

California

  • Early Data on Results of New Required Testing Show that Only 6% of Batches Are Failing Screenings that Require Product to be Removed from Circulation
  • With Advent of Licensing and Regulation, Severe Wildfire Season Could Have Greater Impact on Wholesale Pricing Than in Prior Years

Colorado

  • Wholesale Pricing Stabilizes Momentarily, Disrupting Downward Slide Extending from Early June, As Required Pesticide Testing is Implemented

Oregon

  • Retail Sales Revenue from Flower Down Marginally in June 2018 compared to June 2017, Despite Volume of Product Sold Increasing Almost 60%

Washington

  • State Spot Index Experiences Largest Increase Observed Thus Far in 2018, But Remains the Lowest in the Country

Nevada

  • Total Retail Sales Up Slightly Month-Over-Month in May, While Tax Collections on Wholesale Trading and State Spot Index Decline 

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved