CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — September 28, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED September 28, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.7% to $1,074 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $27 to $1,262 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $479 to $2,046 per pound range. The average deal size declined less than 1% to 4.3 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.37, and the simple average price was $2.78.


National transaction stats continued this week to display the stability that has characterized them through the current quarter. The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower shrank week-over-week, by 1%, with deals for greenhouse product seeing a corresponding gain in this metric. Each grow type’s share of the total reported weight moved was virtually identical to last week. The total volume traded nationwide that was documented by Cannabis Benchmarks price reporters increased by 4.7% week-over-week.  

The U.S. Spot Index declined to establish a historic low for the third consecutive week. The current national composite price is off by nearly 30% compared to that observed at the same time a year ago, which was $1,541 per pound.

The downward momentum of the U.S. Spot’s trend line accelerated this week, as it declined by $11 after the prior four weeks saw drop offs of between $1 and $5. The modest upward movement of the Trailing 4-Week Averages of California and Colorado’s composite prices observed last week continued this week, with the trend lines of those states’ Spot Indices climbing by $1 each. Meanwhile, the rate of decline of the Trailing 4-Week Averages of Oregon’s and Washington State’s Spot rates increased this week. The recent positive momentum of the trend line of Nevada’s composite price was tempered noticeably this week, as the state’s weekly Spot Index saw its first week-over-week downturn since the final week of July.   

October Forward assessed down $25 to close at $1,025 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal decreased 4 pounds to 57 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 46%, 37%, and 17% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 80 pounds, 37 pounds, and 38 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,025 per pound, the October Forward represents a discount of 4.6% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,074 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

 

 Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Volume-Weighted Price for Indoor Flower Down by 5.4% in September, As Rates for Greenhouse and Outdoor Flower Trend Upward Ahead of Fall Harvest

  • Colorado

    State Spot Index Down 5% Compared to Opening Week of Q3, But Rate of Decline Has Slowed in Recent Weeks

  • Oregon

    State Spot Index Again Drops to Historic Low for Any Market, Approaching $600 Per Pound

  • Washington

    Falling Prices for Greenhouse Flower Primarily Responsible for Pulling Down State Composite Price in September

  • Nevada

  • State Spot Index Sees First Week-Over-Week Decline Since the End of July

 

Watch our CEO, Jonathan Rubin, in his latest appearance on TD Ameritrade – Morning Trade Live discussing the global cannabis commodity markets and their impact on pot stocks and valuations.

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — September 21, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED September 21, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 0.4% to $1,093 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $1 to $1,289 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $497 to $2,080 per pound range. The average deal size declined 2% to 4.4 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.41, and the simple average price was $2.84.

 

The relative frequency of trades for both indoor and outdoor product increased slightly, by less than 1% each week-over-week, with greenhouse flower seeing a decline of a bit more than 1% in this metric. Greenhouse product’s share of the total reported weight moved nationally also contracted, by about 2%, with the entirety of the corresponding increase accruing to the relative volume of outdoor flower. The relative volume of warehouse product was stable week-over-week.

The U.S. Spot Index declined by 0.4% this week to settle at $1,093 per pound, establishing a new historic low for the national composite price for the second consecutive week. Unlike last week, the overall decline was driven entirely by a downturn in the national volume-weighted rate for indoor product.

 

Viewing U.S. pricing from the state level, notable decreases in the Spot Indices of Oregon and Washington State were primarily responsible for the marginal drop in the national composite price, overwhelming increases wholesale rates reported in Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan, while the supply side markets of California and Colorado exhibited general stability in pricing relative to last week.

 

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets ticked upward slightly this week, on the back of rises in California, Colorado, and Nevada. Despite wholesale prices demonstrating upward momentum in the sizeable medical markets of Arizona and Michigan, the national rate for flower to be sold to patients declined this week.

October Forward assessed down $50 at $1,050 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal increased 1 pound to 61 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 46%, 38%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 87 pounds, 40 pounds, and 38 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,050 per pound, the October Forward represents a discount of 3.9% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,093 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

 

 Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Ahead of Fall Harvest, Relative Volumes of Outdoor Product Being Traded in California Recently Already Up Significantly Compared to the Same Time Last Year

  • Colorado

    July Saw Record-Setting Retail Demand in Colorado’s Legal Cannabis Market, Yet Wholesale Prices Slid to Record Lows in that Month

  • Oregon

    State Spot Index Sinks to Lowest Ever Recorded in Any Market, as Does Volume-Weighted Price for Outdoor-Grown Flower, Even with This Year’s Fall Harvest Yet to Reach Market

  • Washington

    Forecasts Suggest Generally Favorable Conditions for This Year’s Autumn Crop

  • Michigan

  • Nearly 100 Medical Cannabis Businesses Receive Reprieve from Requirement to Shut Down this Week, Will Be Allowed to Operate Until December 15th
  •  
  • Arizona
  • Sales Volume to Patients Reaches Record Levels in August, As Strong Demand Appears to be Pushing Up State Spot Index During Current Quarter

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — September 14, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED September 14, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.0% to $1,097 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by more than $2 to $1,288 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $505 to $2,070 per pound range. The average deal size was nominally unchanged at 4.5 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.42, and the simple average price was $2.84.

 

The relative frequency of trades for greenhouse product increased by over 1% week-over-week, with the corresponding decline split fairly evenly between transactions for the other two grow types. However, greenhouse flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide decreased compared to last week, by 2%. The relative volume of indoor product saw a contraction of the same proportion, while that for outdoor flower was flat.    

The U.S. Spot Index declined by 1% this week to settle at $1,097 per pound. In the process, it established a new historic low for the second consecutive week. Sliding prices in September, just ahead of the fall harvest, are a break from trends observed nationally and in the West Coast markets in the past, which have frequently seen rates trend upward ahead of the autumn crop being brought to market. Early-finishing varieties should be cut down in the coming days and weeks, representing the beginning of the harvest season and inflating the relative volumes of the sun-fueled grow types, if the observations of prior years are any indication. The fact that the U.S. Spot has already been trending downward through August and the first half of September, driven in recent weeks by falling prices for warehouse product, could portend a harvest-season price slide of even larger proportions than documented in years past.

The national volume-weighted prices for flower to be sold to registered patients and general consumers both decreased this week, but by magnitudes smaller than that of the U.S. Spot. The decline in the national adult-use rate was due largely to sliding prices in Colorado and Washington State, which outweighed upticks in Nevada and California. Arizona’s was the only medical market to see a notable rise in its Spot price, which was overwhelmed by downturns in California, Massachusetts, Illinois, and Maine.

October Forward unchanged at $1,100 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal decreased 1 pound to 60 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 44%, 39%, and 17% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 84 pounds, 41 pounds, and 40 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,100 per pound, the October Forward represents a premium of 0.3% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,097 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

 

 Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Volume-Weighted Price for Indoor Flower Falls to New Historic Low for California’s Market, Settling Below $1,350 Per Pound

  • Colorado

    Regulators and Industry Discussed Removal of Vertical Integration Requirement for Medical Businesses at Rulemaking Hearing This Week

  • Oregon

    Greenhouse and Outdoor Product See Volume-Weighted Prices Slide to Historic Lows, But State Spot Index Up Marginally on Increased Relative Volume of Indoor Flower

  • Washington

    State Spot Index Drops by 4%, Breaking Five-Week Run of Consecutive Increases

  • Alaska

  • Wholesale Trading Volumes Continue to Expand in 2018: Tax Collections from Cultivators in July Up by Almost 240% Compared to the Same Month Last Year
  •  
  • Illinois
  • Medical Cannabis Market Sees Record Retail and Wholesale Revenues in August as Demand Continues to Grow

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — September 7, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED September 7, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 0.8% to $1,108 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $32 to $1,285 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $512 to $2,059 per pound range. The average deal size was nominally unchanged at 4.5 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.44, and the simple average price was $2.83.

 

The relative frequency of trades for outdoor product increased by 1% week-over-week, with that for greenhouse flower experiencing a decline of the same proportion, while indoor product’s share of this metric was flat. Each individual grow type’s share of the total reported weight moved was virtually unchanged compared to last week. Only outdoor flower saw an uptick in its relative volume large enough to be discernible in the chart below; shifts in the relative volumes of warehouse and greenhouse product were negligible.  

 

 

The U.S. Spot Index slipped downward slightly this week, continuing the up-and-down behavior that has been observed since late July. A drop in the volume-weighted price for indoor flower was entirely responsible for the decline in the composite rate. Average deal sizes continued to shrink for the most part and are significantly smaller than those observed in the opening week of 2018, when the average composite transaction volume, and those for warehouse, greenhouse, and outdoor product were documented at 11.6, 8.9, 14.1, and 20.4 pounds, respectively.   

The national volume-weighted prices for flower to be sold to registered patients and general consumers both decreased this week by magnitudes similar to that of the U.S. Spot Index as a whole. In the adult-use realm, small declines in those sectors in California, Colorado, and Washington State worked to push down the national rate. Product in Colorado’s medical cannabis market also experienced a week-over-week downturn, as did the Spot Indices of Illinois and Maine.

March 2019 Forward initially assessed at $1,065 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal decreased to 61 pounds this week, from 64.5 pounds last week. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 43%, 40%, and 18% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 92 pounds, 42 pounds, and 40 pounds, respectively.

 

The initial assessment of the March 2019 Forward price reflects uncertainty in the California market. This week’s forward observations, and additional feedback from the field, reflect an essentially equal split as to whether prices will increase or decrease in March relative to February. By March, a good proportion of California businesses could be subject to plant and inventory tracking, with incremental administrative costs being passed on to wholesale and retail buyers. Additional upward price pressure in the spring could come from demand growth in the Massachusetts market, although such pressure could also conceivably be minimal given the slow pace of that state’s rollout of its adult-use system.

 

At $1,100 per pound, the October Forward represents a discount of 0.7% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,108 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

 

 Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    After July’s Monthly Composite Price Increased Slightly with New Compliance Requirements, Downward Trend in Monthly Wholesale Rates Resumed in August

  • Colorado

    Despite Numerous Changes to Product Testing Rules in 2018 and Increased Costs to Growers, Monthly Spot Prices Have Trended Downward Consistently This Year

  • Oregon

    State Spot Index Rises for Second Consecutive Week, Behavior Not Observed Since Early April

  • Washington

    Composite Price Slips Slightly This Week, But Still Up Over 10% Compared to Current YTD and Historic Low Observed at the End of July

  • New Mexico

  • Statewide Production Decreases in Q2 for Second Straight Quarter as Patient Purchasing and Wholesale Prices Rise
  •  

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved