CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — October 26, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED October 26, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.3% to $1,069 per pound, reaching historic low for the Index.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by nearly $4 to $1,286 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $499 to $2,072 per pound range. The average deal size increased 3.8% to 3.9 pounds, from 3.8 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.36, and the simple average price was $2.83.      

The U.S. Spot Index decreased 1.3% this week, settling at $1,069 per pound. The October average of $1,076 is a 1.6% decrease from the September average of $1,093 per pound.. The overall decrease in the national volume-weighted price was due to declines of flower prices in California, Colorado, and Washington. Reports from our analysts indicate that many outdoor cultivators are actively harvesting, drying, and curing this seasons crop. As more outdoor product comes to market the saturation of supply will potentially drive a decline in price as has been experienced in previous November time frames.

 

Last year, the U.S. Spot Index was observed to rise 5% between the last week in October and the second week of November, when fresh outdoor product is at a premium, before falling to its annual low of $1,368 per pound in the third week of November.

The downward momentum of the U.S. Spot’s trend line advanced this week due to the 1.3%, or $15, drop observed for the weekly national composite price. The Trailing 4-Week Average of California’s Spot Index continued its decline due to yet another historic low rate of the state composite index. The trend line of Colorado’s composite price also experienced a decline to an historic low, pushing the Trailing 4-Week Average for the state down. The Trailing 4-Week Average of Nevada’s Spot rebounded slightly this week, albeit by a small margin, after three straight weeks of falling composite prices in the state.

November Forward closes unchanged at $1,000 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal decreased to 53 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 53%, 32%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 68 pounds, 37 pounds, and 35 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,000 per pound, the November Forward represents a discount of 6.5% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,069 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

 

 

Visit Our Blog To Find Out The Latest On Canadian Wholesale Markets

 

Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • U.S.

    Detailed Q3 Review & Analysis including Spot Price Observations Histogram, Quarterly Averages, and  Volume Discount Curve

  • State-by-State Q3 Review & Analysis

  • Colorado

    Marijuana Enforcement Division Completes Final Draft of New Regulations

  • Michigan

    Pre-Licensed and Unlicensed Dispensaries Ordered to Close By October 31

  •  

 Watch our CEO, Jonathan Rubin, in his latest appearance on BNN Bloomberg discussing the price declines experienced in competitive U.S. markets and the likely parallels forthcoming in Canada.

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — October 19, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED October 19, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1% to $1,084 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $21 to $1,289 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $489 to $2,089 per pound range. The average deal size increased 1.6% to 3.8 pounds, from 3.7 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.39, and the simple average price was $2.84.

The relative frequency of trades for both indoor and greenhouse flower increased slightly this week, by a bit more than 1% and less than 1%, respectively, resulting in a corresponding decrease in this metric for transactions involving greenhouse product. Outdoor-grown flower’s share of the total reported weight moved increased again this week, by less than 2%. The entirety of the corresponding contraction was taken from the relative volume of warehouse product, while that for greenhouse flower was flat week-over-week.       

The downward momentum of the U.S. Spot’s trend line continued this week, but slowed noticeably due to the uptick observed for the weekly national composite price. The same applies to the Trailing 4-Week Average of California’s Spot Index, which persisted in its decline due to last week’s historic low rate. The trend line of Colorado’s composite price reversed course this week, declining by $3 after last week’s $1 rise, but remained the most stable of the trend lines depicted in the chart below. After being on the rise since mid-August, the Trailing 4-Week Average of Nevada’s Spot began to show downward momentum this week, after two straight weeks of falling composite prices in the state.   

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets rose slightly this week, as upticks in the recreational sector in California, as well as Oregon’s Spot Index, overrode modest downturns in Colorado, Washington State, and Nevada. Rises in the medical markets of California and Arizona were primarily responsible for the marginal bump in the national rate for product to be sold to registered patients, as many of the smaller medical markets saw declines in their Spot Indices this week.     

November Forward unchanged at $1,000 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal decreased to 57 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 51%, 34%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 74 pounds, 38 pounds, and 36 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,000 per pound, the November Forward represents a discount of 7.7% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,084 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

 

 Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    State Spot Index is Declining Overall This Harvest Season, But by a Smaller Magnitude Than Last Year

  • Colorado

    Retail Demand Reaches New Record High in August, But Contemporaneous Wholesale Prices Still Trended Downward

  • Oregon

    Composite Price Rises for Second Week in a Row, as Volume-Weighted Rate for Outdoor Flower Falls to Historic Low for That Grow Type in Any Market

  • Washington

    State Spot Index Sinks to Historic Low for Any Market This Week, Settling Below $600 Per Pound

  • Massachusetts

  • Two Testing Labs Receive Final Approval for Adult-Use Licenses
  •  
  • Arizona

  • September Sales Volume to Patients Subsides Slightly After Reaching Record Levels in August, While State Spot Index Continued to Rise on Generally Robust Demand

NEW VIDEO! 

Watch our CEO, Jonathan Rubin, in his latest appearance on BNN Bloomberg discussing the price declines experienced in competitive U.S. markets and the likely parallels forthcoming in Canada.

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — October 12, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED October 12, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 0.3% to $1,073 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $13 to $1,268 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $483 to $2,054 per pound range. The average deal size declined 12% to 3.7 pounds, from 4.2 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.37, and the simple average price was $2.80.

The relative frequency of trades for each grow type was very steady compared to last week. The only shift discernible in the chart below is a marginal decline in that metric for deals involving greenhouse flower. In a signal that the fall harvest is beginning to come to market, outdoor product’s share of the total documented weight moved swelled by almost 5% compared to last week. The relative volumes of indoor and greenhouse flower declined by about 3% and 1%, respectively, week-over-week.      

Washington State’s Spot Index experienced a significant downturn this week, falling to $606 per pound, a historic low for that market and just $5 above the all-time low for any market, documented last week in Oregon. California’s Spot this week also represents a historic low for the Golden State, at $1,053 per pound. Washington, D.C.’s Spot Index ascended to a year-to-date high this week, of $2,853 per pound.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets jumped by almost 4% this week, due almost entirely to an uptick in that sector of California’s market, while Oregon’s Spot also saw a slight increase. Falling prices for medical flower in California, as well as a decline in Arizona’s Spot Index, were primarily responsible for pulling down the national volume-weighted rate for product designated for sale to patients.    

November Forward unchanged at $1,000 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal increased to 58 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 50%, 35%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 79 pounds, 37 pounds, and 38 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,000 per pound, the November Forward represents a discount of 6.8% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,073 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

 

 Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Relative Volume of Outdoor Flower Increases to Constitute Half of Reported Weight Moved, Pulling Spot Index to New Historic Low for the State

  • Colorado

    Volume-Weighted Price for Indoor Product Falls to All-Time Low for Colorado, Approaching $900 Per Pound
  •  
  • Oregon

    Wholesale Rates Tick Upward Marginally and Momentarily, Even as “Many” Outdoor Farmers Reported to be Selling Product at a Loss

  • Washington

    Spot Index Slides to Historic Low for the State as Trading of Outdoor Flower Increases with the Fall Harvest

  • Nevada

  • Sales in the Adult-Use Sector Top $40 Million for the Third Consecutive Month in July, But Production Appears to be Keeping Pace with Demand as State Spot Sank in that Month

 Watch our CEO, Jonathan Rubin, in his latest appearance on TD Ameritrade – Morning Trade Live discussing the global cannabis commodity markets and their impact on pot stocks and valuations.

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — October 5, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED October 5, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 0.2% to $1,077 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $7 to $1,255 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $457 to $2,053 per pound range. The average deal size declined 2.6% to 4.2 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.37, and the simple average price was $2.77.

The relative frequency of trades for indoor and outdoor flower both increased this week, by 1% each, resulting in a 2% decline in this metric for deals involving greenhouse product. Both warehouse and greenhouse flower saw their shares of the total reported weight moved nationwide shrink slightly this week, by about 1% each. Correspondingly, the relative volume of outdoor-grown product increased by 2% week-over-week, perhaps signalling the beginning of the fall harvest coming to market.    

The average composite transaction volume contracted again this week, due nearly entirely to a sharp decrease in the mean size of trades for warehouse flower. Meanwhile, the average size of deals for greenhouse product saw its decline slow compared to last week, while that for outdoor flower was on the rise. After four consecutive weeks of declines, the volume-weighted price for indoor product ticked upward this week, and was primarily responsible for boosting the national average, with assistance from marginal increases in the going rates of the other grow types.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets decreased again this week, as downturns in Colorado, Oregon, and Washington State overwhelmed increases in Nevada, Alaska, and California’s recreational sector. Increases in the Spot Indices of medical-only markets such as Arizona, Michigan, Illinois, and New Mexico lifted the national average for product designated for registered patients.  

April 2019 Forward initially assessed at $1,025 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal was nominally unchanged at 57 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 48%, 36%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 79 pounds, 37 pounds, and 38 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,000 per pound, the November Forward represents a discount of 7.1% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,077 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

 

 Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Spot Index Slips to Record Low for the State, Falling Below $1,100 Per Pound on Increased Relative Volume of Lower-Priced Outdoor Flower

  • Colorado

  • MED Data Shows Flower Production Outpaced Sales Volume by Over 50% in H1 2018
  • Volume-Weighted Price for Indoor-Grown Product Drops to Historic Low for the State
  •  
  • Oregon

    New All-Time Low Spot Rate for Any Market Established in Oregon for the Third Consecutive Week, As Reported Transaction Stats Indicate Fall Harvest Has Yet to Reach Market

  • Washington

    Volume-Weighted Price for Greenhouse Flower Again Falls to Record Low for the Grow Type in Any Market, Pulling Down Composite Price to a Historic Trough for the State

  • Michigan

  • State Regulators Move Up Deadline for Businesses to Get Licensed or Shut Down, With Existing Product Required to be Liquidated or Destroyed Within 30 Days of Licensure

 Watch our CEO, Jonathan Rubin, in his latest appearance on TD Ameritrade – Morning Trade Live discussing the global cannabis commodity markets and their impact on pot stocks and valuations.

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved