CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED October 26, 2018
U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.3% to $1,069 per pound, reaching historic low for the Index.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by nearly $4 to $1,286 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $499 to $2,072 per pound range. The average deal size increased 3.8% to 3.9 pounds, from 3.8 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.36, and the simple average price was $2.83.
The U.S. Spot Index decreased 1.3% this week, settling at $1,069 per pound. The October average of $1,076 is a 1.6% decrease from the September average of $1,093 per pound.. The overall decrease in the national volume-weighted price was due to declines of flower prices in California, Colorado, and Washington. Reports from our analysts indicate that many outdoor cultivators are actively harvesting, drying, and curing this seasons crop. As more outdoor product comes to market the saturation of supply will potentially drive a decline in price as has been experienced in previous November time frames.
Last year, the U.S. Spot Index was observed to rise 5% between the last week in October and the second week of November, when fresh outdoor product is at a premium, before falling to its annual low of $1,368 per pound in the third week of November.
The downward momentum of the U.S. Spot’s trend line advanced this week due to the 1.3%, or $15, drop observed for the weekly national composite price. The Trailing 4-Week Average of California’s Spot Index continued its decline due to yet another historic low rate of the state composite index. The trend line of Colorado’s composite price also experienced a decline to an historic low, pushing the Trailing 4-Week Average for the state down. The Trailing 4-Week Average of Nevada’s Spot rebounded slightly this week, albeit by a small margin, after three straight weeks of falling composite prices in the state.
November Forward closes unchanged at $1,000 per pound.
The average reported forward deal decreased to 53 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 53%, 32%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 68 pounds, 37 pounds, and 35 pounds, respectively.
At $1,000 per pound, the November Forward represents a discount of 6.5% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,069 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:
Detailed Q3 Review & Analysis including Spot Price Observations Histogram, Quarterly Averages, and Volume Discount Curve
State-by-State Q3 Review & Analysis
Marijuana Enforcement Division Completes Final Draft of New Regulations
Pre-Licensed and Unlicensed Dispensaries Ordered to Close By October 31
Watch our CEO, Jonathan Rubin, in his latest appearance on BNN Bloomberg discussing the price declines experienced in competitive U.S. markets and the likely parallels forthcoming in Canada.
Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC
3 August 2018. Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC. All rights reserved