CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED October 19, 2018
U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1% to $1,084 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $21 to $1,289 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $489 to $2,089 per pound range. The average deal size increased 1.6% to 3.8 pounds, from 3.7 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.39, and the simple average price was $2.84.
The relative frequency of trades for both indoor and greenhouse flower increased slightly this week, by a bit more than 1% and less than 1%, respectively, resulting in a corresponding decrease in this metric for transactions involving greenhouse product. Outdoor-grown flower’s share of the total reported weight moved increased again this week, by less than 2%. The entirety of the corresponding contraction was taken from the relative volume of warehouse product, while that for greenhouse flower was flat week-over-week.
The downward momentum of the U.S. Spot’s trend line continued this week, but slowed noticeably due to the uptick observed for the weekly national composite price. The same applies to the Trailing 4-Week Average of California’s Spot Index, which persisted in its decline due to last week’s historic low rate. The trend line of Colorado’s composite price reversed course this week, declining by $3 after last week’s $1 rise, but remained the most stable of the trend lines depicted in the chart below. After being on the rise since mid-August, the Trailing 4-Week Average of Nevada’s Spot began to show downward momentum this week, after two straight weeks of falling composite prices in the state.
The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets rose slightly this week, as upticks in the recreational sector in California, as well as Oregon’s Spot Index, overrode modest downturns in Colorado, Washington State, and Nevada. Rises in the medical markets of California and Arizona were primarily responsible for the marginal bump in the national rate for product to be sold to registered patients, as many of the smaller medical markets saw declines in their Spot Indices this week.
November Forward unchanged at $1,000 per pound.
The average reported forward deal decreased to 57 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 51%, 34%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 74 pounds, 38 pounds, and 36 pounds, respectively.
At $1,000 per pound, the November Forward represents a discount of 7.7% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,084 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:
State Spot Index is Declining Overall This Harvest Season, But by a Smaller Magnitude Than Last Year
Retail Demand Reaches New Record High in August, But Contemporaneous Wholesale Prices Still Trended Downward
Composite Price Rises for Second Week in a Row, as Volume-Weighted Rate for Outdoor Flower Falls to Historic Low for That Grow Type in Any Market
State Spot Index Sinks to Historic Low for Any Market This Week, Settling Below $600 Per Pound
- Two Testing Labs Receive Final Approval for Adult-Use Licenses
- September Sales Volume to Patients Subsides Slightly After Reaching Record Levels in August, While State Spot Index Continued to Rise on Generally Robust Demand
Watch our CEO, Jonathan Rubin, in his latest appearance on BNN Bloomberg discussing the price declines experienced in competitive U.S. markets and the likely parallels forthcoming in Canada.
Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC
3 August 2018. Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC. All rights reserved