CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — November 16, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 16, 2018

 U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 2.7% to $1,076 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $16 to $1,262 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $485 to $2,040 per pound range. The average deal size increased 3.8% to 4.2 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.37, and the simple average price was $2.78.

 

National Transaction Stats continued to display steadiness this week. Just like last week, the relative volume of each grow type traded was stable compared to the week prior. The relative frequency of transactions for indoor-grown flower decreased slightly week-over-week, by 1%, with deals for greenhouse product seeing a rise of the same proportion in this metric. The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower was flat compared to last week.

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 2.7% this week to settle at $1,076 per pound, breaking a streak of three consecutive weeks of declines. The national volume-weighted prices for all three grow types were on the upswing this week, as were the Spot Indices of three of the four major Western markets, with Washington State the only exception. Wholesale prices may have been pushed upward by increased demand ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, as the subsequent weekend has become one where retailers expect increased sales. Last year at this time, though, the U.S. Spot fell to its annual low of $1,368 per pound in the week ending November 17, 2017. However, it would rise the following week, to $1,392 per pound. Data from prior years suggests that this year’s annual low may already be behind us, but very different market landscapes in 2018 mean that unprecedented price movements remain well within the realm of possibility.

Average deal sizes were up across the board this week, although the growth in the mean volume of transactions involving outdoor flower slowed compared to observations from recent weeks. Retailers and medical dispensaries may be looking to bring in inventory ahead of next week’s Thanksgiving holiday, when most will offer discounts and promotions in an attempt to drive increased sales. Average deal sizes were also on the upswing for the most part at this time last year, with the only exception being that for greenhouse product.     

December 2018 Forward unchanged at $1,050 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal was unchanged at 56 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were also unchanged, representing 56%, 29%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 69 pounds, 38 pounds, and 41 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,050 per pound, the December Forward represents a discount of 2.4% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,076 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    State Spot Index Rises to Highest Level Observed Since the Opening Week of October

  • Colorado

    Retail Sales Decline in September, with Combined Adult-Use and Medical Revenues Down Slightly Compared to those Recorded in September 2017

  • Oregon

    State Composite Price Rises for Sixth Straight Week, Now Almost 14% Above Recent Historic Low Established at the Beginning of October

  • Washington

    State Spot Index Again Sinks to New Historic Low for Any Market, Approaching $550 Per Pound

  • Michigan

  • Restraining Order Against State Regulators Extended, Allowing Applicants for Medical Cannabis Business Licenses to Continue Operating Under Temporary Authorization While Awaiting Judicial Decision
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Retail Sales Reach Record Heights in October, While Wholesale Revenues and State Spot Index See Modest Increases
  •  

 Watch our CEO, Jonathan Rubin, in his latest appearance on BNN Bloomberg discussing the price declines experienced in competitive U.S. markets and the likely parallels forthcoming in Canada.

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — November 9, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 9, 2018

VISIT US AT THE MJ BIZ CONFERENCE BOOTH #3979!

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.2% to $1,047 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $24 to $1,246 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $483 to $2,010 per pound range. The average deal size increased 2.8% to 4 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.31, and the simple average price was $2.75.

 

National Transaction Stats were quite stable week-over-week. The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower declined by 1%, with the resulting increase accruing to transactions involving greenhouse product. Each grow type’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide was virtually unchanged compared to last week. Last year at this time, the relative volumes of warehouse, greenhouse, and outdoor-grown flower were documented to settle at 44%, 31%, and 25%, respectively.

The U.S. Spot Index declined by 1.2% this week to settle at $1,047 per pound. This week’s national composite price represents another historic low, the third consecutive week in which that milestone has been established. Nearly every state market covered by our reporting – with the exceptions of Nevada, Maine, Massachusetts, and Vermont – saw week-over-week decreases in their Spot Indices, while Oregon’s was flat.

 

Transaction States continued to be fairly stable, both on the national level and in the major Western markets. This observation – along with the significantly smaller deal sizes documented this year relative to last – suggests that persistent oversupply situations and low prices have dampened demand from wholesale buyers, who in prior years have been eager to stock up on cheap product in the wake of the autumn harvest.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets dropped by almost 2% this week. Nevada was the only state with a functional adult-use system to see an uptick in its Spot rate this week, and of less than 1% at that. Declines in the medical-only markets of Arizona, Illinois, and Michigan, among numerous others, weighed down the national rate for product designated for registered patients.  

December 2018 Forward unchanged at $1,050 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal increased to 56 pounds from 52 pounds last week. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 54%, 30%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 69 pounds, 38 pounds, and 41 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,050 per pound, the December Forward represents a premium of 0.2% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,047 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Issuance of First Annual Licenses Means Those Businesses Will be Required to Use METRC Tracking, But Wholesale Price Disruption Not Expected Immediately

  • Colorado

    Composite Price Again Falls to New Historic Low on Declining Prices for Greenhouse Flower, Increased Relative Volume of Outdoor Product

  • Oregon

    Despite Recent Upward Trend, Quarter-to-Date Average of State’s Spot Index Down Over 15% Compared to Q3’s Mean Composite Price

  • Washington

    Tax Collection Data Suggests Decrease in Demand Contributing to Record Low Wholesale Prices

  • Michigan

  • Commencement of Regulated Medical Market Still Uncertain as Voters Approve Adult-Use Legalization Measure
  •  
  • New Mexico

  • Judge Strikes Down State’s Plant-Count Restrictions on Licensed Businesses, Calls for New Rules to be Formulated that Could Increase Supply
  • New Governor-Elect Has Expressed Support for Legal Cannabis, a Departure from the Views of Current Governor
  •  

 Watch our CEO, Jonathan Rubin, in his latest appearance on BNN Bloomberg discussing the price declines experienced in competitive U.S. markets and the likely parallels forthcoming in Canada.

VISIT US AT THE MJ BIZ CONFERENCE BOOTH #3979!

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — November 2, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 2, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 0.9% to $1,060 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $15 to $1,270 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $500 to $2,040 per pound range. The average deal size increased nominally to nearly 4 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.34, and the simple average price was $2.80.

 

The relative frequency of trades for each individual grow type was virtually unchanged from last week’s data. Outdoor flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide in state-legal markets increased by almost 2% this week to make such product account for a third of the volume observed. The relative volume of indoor flower decreased by the same proportion, while that for greenhouse product was flat compared to last week.

The U.S. Spot Index declined by 0.9% this week to settle at $1,060 per pound, in the process establishing a historic low for the national composite rate for the second week in a row. Still, the U.S. Spot exhibited greater stability over the course of October this year than it did in the same period last year. In 2017, the national volume-weighted average declined by 5.6% from the first to the final week of October, from $1,455 to $1,373 per pound. This year, the U.S. Spot decreased by only 0.7% from the opening to the closing week of last month. Upward pressure on the national average during the prime harvest season month came from a price recovery in Oregon. Additionally, wholesale rates in California remain elevated compared to the other major Western markets, as businesses are working to adjust to new, still-changing regulations, as well as gain local and state licenses.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets was flat this week, as upticks in the recreational sector in California, as well as in the Spot Indices of Oregon and Nevada, counterbalanced declines in Colorado and Washington. Declines in the medical-only markets of Arizona and Illinois, among others, weighed down the national rate for product designated for registered patients, despite the medical sector of California’s market seeing a small week-over-week increase in its composite wholesale price.  

May 2019 Forward assessed at $1,025 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal decreased to 52 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 55%, 30%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 65 pounds, 38 pounds, and 36 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,050 per pound, the December Forward represents a discount of 0.9% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,060 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

 

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Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Prices for Outdoor Flower Experience Relative Stability in October as the Fall Harvest is Brought In

  • Colorado

    Spot Index Continues Recent Gradual Descent, Falling to New Historic Low for the State

  • Oregon

    Price Recovery Persists as Spot Index Rises for Fourth Consecutive Week, Despite Volume-Weighted Rates for Outdoor Product Dropping to Unprecedented Depths

  • Washington

    State Spot Index Again Sinks to All-Time Low for Any Market

  • Michigan

    Judge’s Ruling Gives Businesses Without State License Approval Temporary Reprieve from October 31st Shutdown Deadline

 Watch our CEO, Jonathan Rubin, in his latest appearance on BNN Bloomberg discussing the price declines experienced in competitive U.S. markets and the likely parallels forthcoming in Canada.

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved