CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — November 30, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 30, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.1% to $1,091 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $32 to $1,224 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $480 to $1,968 per pound range. The average deal size decreased 6.8% to 4.1 pounds from 4.4 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.40, and the simple average price was $2.70.

The relative frequency of trades for greenhouse flower increased this week, by less than 2%, while that for deals involving indoor product contracted by the same proportion and the relative frequency of transactions for outdoor flower was flat. Greenhouse product’s share of the total reported weight moved was stable week-over-week. Meanwhile, the relative volume of warehouse flower grew by 1% compared to last week, while that for outdoor product decreased by the same proportion.

The U.S. Spot Index declined by 1.1% this week to settle at $1,091 per pound. This despite three of the four major Western markets – Colorado, Oregon, and Washington State – seeing increases in their composite prices. However, the total volume of trading reported in Oregon was smaller than usual, lessening the influence of that state’s Spot Index on the national average. The U.S. Spot averaged $1,075 per pound for November, virtually identical, but down marginally, compared to October’s monthly mean price of $1,076 per pound. In 2017, the national composite rates’s monthly average ticked downward by 0.6% from October to November, from $1,421 to $1,412 per pound.

The trend line of the U.S. Spot Index continued its upward momentum this week, but its rate of increase was tempered slightly by the decline in the national weekly volume-weighted average. The Trailing 4-Week Average of Colorado’s composite price is now displaying clear positive movement after very a very modest upturn last week. Despite significant regulatory uncertainty, the trend line of Michigan’s Spot Index continues to sink gradually, behavior that commenced in mid-October. The downward trend in wholesale prices in Michigan may be due to a significant reduction in wholesale buyers, which we note in the Forward Curve commentary. While outdoor growing is permitted under Nevada’s rules, such product has not been reported as part of the state’s supply mix at this time and the Trailing 4-Week Average of the Silver State’s Spot Index has climbed upward through this month.

December 2018 Forward closes up $25 to $1,100 per pound.

The average reported forward deal declined nominally to 56.5 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 54%, 30%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 67.5 pounds, 44 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

At $1,100 per pound, the December Forward represents a premium of 0.8% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,091 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Volume-Weighted Price for Indoor-Grown Flower Up 15% Quarter-to-Date

  • Colorado

    State Spot Index Up 5.5% Compared to Historic Low Observed Three Weeks Ago

  • Oregon

  • State Composite Rate up 20% Quarter-to-Date, Even as Prices for Outdoor Flower Sink with Reports of Robust Fall Harvest
  •  
  • Washington

  • State Spot Index Experiences First Week-Over-Week Rise Since Close of August, But Still Down 16% Quarter-to-Date
  •  
  • Arizona

  • Sales Volume to Patients Reaches New Record Heights in October, But Stability in Wholesale Pricing Indicates Adequate Supply to Meet Demand
  •  
  • Michigan

  • Regulators Formulate Proposal to Commence Licensed Medical Market, While Allowing Licensees to Supplement Supply by Purchasing From Caregivers
  •  

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — November 21, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 21, 2018

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!!

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 2.5% to $1,103 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $6 to $1,256 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $489 to $2,024 per pound range. The average deal size increased 4.2% to 4.4 pounds from 4.2 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.43, and the simple average price was $2.77.


The stability that has recently characterized national Transaction Stats was again on display this week. The relative frequency of trades for greenhouse flower contracted marginally, by less than 1%, with any corresponding increases so small as to not be visible in the chart below. Indoor-grown product’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide in state-legal markets expanded by 1% compared to last week; the relative volume of outdoor flower decreased by the same proportion, while that for greenhouse product was unchanged.  

The U.S. Spot Index followed last week’s 2.7% rise with an increase of 2.5% this week, causing it to settle at $1,103 per pound. This week’s national composite price is the highest observed since September 7th, prior to the commencement of the harvest season. A notable uptick in California’s Spot rate was primarily responsible for the continued climb of the national average this week, while an increase in Colorado’s composite price also applied upward pressure. Rising prices in the two largest state-legal cannabis markets overwhelmed continued downturns in Washington State, where historically low wholesale rates continue to be reported, as well as modest declines in the Spot Indices of Oregon and Nevada. Last year at this time, the U.S. Spot Index experienced a rise of 1.8% in the week of the Thanksgiving holiday.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets climbed again this week, as upticks in California and Colorado outweighed declines in Washington and Alaska, as well as marginal downturns observed in Oregon and Nevada. A rise in rates for flower designated for patients in California, along with an increase in Arizona’s Spot Index, were the primary drivers of the increase in the national volume-weighted price for product in medical markets.

December 2018 Forward up $25 to $1,075 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal increased 1 pound to 57 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 55%, 30%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 68 pounds, 44 pounds, and 41 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,075 per pound, the December Forward represents a discount of 2.6% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,103 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Volumes of Flower, Trim, and Fresh Plants Sold Wholesale in Q3 All More Than Double Compared to Prior Quarter

  • Oregon

    Harvest Season Inspections and Enforcement Could Result in License Cancellations for Dozens of Growers

  • Nevada

  • Retail Sales and Wholesale Tax Receipts Increased Slightly in August, Along with State Spot Index
  •  
  • Massachusetts

  • Adult-Use Sales Commenced This Week, But Only Two Storefronts Open to Serve General Consumers
  •  

 Watch our CEO, Jonathan Rubin, in his latest appearance on BNN Bloomberg discussing the price declines experienced in competitive U.S. markets and the likely parallels forthcoming in Canada.

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — November 16, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 16, 2018

 U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 2.7% to $1,076 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $16 to $1,262 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $485 to $2,040 per pound range. The average deal size increased 3.8% to 4.2 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.37, and the simple average price was $2.78.

 

National Transaction Stats continued to display steadiness this week. Just like last week, the relative volume of each grow type traded was stable compared to the week prior. The relative frequency of transactions for indoor-grown flower decreased slightly week-over-week, by 1%, with deals for greenhouse product seeing a rise of the same proportion in this metric. The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower was flat compared to last week.

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 2.7% this week to settle at $1,076 per pound, breaking a streak of three consecutive weeks of declines. The national volume-weighted prices for all three grow types were on the upswing this week, as were the Spot Indices of three of the four major Western markets, with Washington State the only exception. Wholesale prices may have been pushed upward by increased demand ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, as the subsequent weekend has become one where retailers expect increased sales. Last year at this time, though, the U.S. Spot fell to its annual low of $1,368 per pound in the week ending November 17, 2017. However, it would rise the following week, to $1,392 per pound. Data from prior years suggests that this year’s annual low may already be behind us, but very different market landscapes in 2018 mean that unprecedented price movements remain well within the realm of possibility.

Average deal sizes were up across the board this week, although the growth in the mean volume of transactions involving outdoor flower slowed compared to observations from recent weeks. Retailers and medical dispensaries may be looking to bring in inventory ahead of next week’s Thanksgiving holiday, when most will offer discounts and promotions in an attempt to drive increased sales. Average deal sizes were also on the upswing for the most part at this time last year, with the only exception being that for greenhouse product.     

December 2018 Forward unchanged at $1,050 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal was unchanged at 56 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were also unchanged, representing 56%, 29%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 69 pounds, 38 pounds, and 41 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,050 per pound, the December Forward represents a discount of 2.4% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,076 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    State Spot Index Rises to Highest Level Observed Since the Opening Week of October

  • Colorado

    Retail Sales Decline in September, with Combined Adult-Use and Medical Revenues Down Slightly Compared to those Recorded in September 2017

  • Oregon

    State Composite Price Rises for Sixth Straight Week, Now Almost 14% Above Recent Historic Low Established at the Beginning of October

  • Washington

    State Spot Index Again Sinks to New Historic Low for Any Market, Approaching $550 Per Pound

  • Michigan

  • Restraining Order Against State Regulators Extended, Allowing Applicants for Medical Cannabis Business Licenses to Continue Operating Under Temporary Authorization While Awaiting Judicial Decision
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Retail Sales Reach Record Heights in October, While Wholesale Revenues and State Spot Index See Modest Increases
  •  

 Watch our CEO, Jonathan Rubin, in his latest appearance on BNN Bloomberg discussing the price declines experienced in competitive U.S. markets and the likely parallels forthcoming in Canada.

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved