CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — December 28, 2018

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published December 28, 2018

 

The CCSI declined 6% this week to C$6.63 per gram, from C$7.08 per gram last week, and is down 15% over the past two weeks. C$6.63 per gram equates to US$2,212 per pound, which places the CCSI at 188% of the U.S. Cannabis Spot Index, currently at US$1,175 per pound.

Wholesale prices in Canada headed lower with supply shortages; howevever, not as extreme as reported in November when AGLC had only 20% of their product delivered and Quebec closed retail locations due to insufficient supply. 

 

Supply shortages still exist, yet inventory on provincial online sites is not as limited as it was in November. AGLC showing nearly 80% of dried flower products available on the online site. Experienced consumers, frustrated with limited quantity, could be turning back to the black market while supply shortages get resolved. One of the contributing factors to the initial supply shortage was incorrect packaging and labeling. Reports from the field indicate that some LPs have been able to resolve these issues. 

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

21 December Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — December 28, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published December 28, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 2.5% to $1,175 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $46 to $1,341 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $549 to $2,133 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 4.1 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.59, and the simple average price was $2.96.

 

The relative frequency of trades for greenhouse flower grew this week, by 1%, while that for outdoor product decreased by the same proportion. The relative frequency of transactions for indoor flower was unchanged compared to last week. Warehouse-grown flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide increased by 1% this week, as did the relative volume of greenhouse product. Consequently, the relative volume of outdoor flower contracted by 2% week-over-week.

The U.S. Spot Index finished 2018 with three consecutive weeks of positive movement, rising this week by 2.5% to settle at $1,175 per pound. For December, the national volume-weighted rate averaged $1,136 per pound, up by 5.7% from November’s mean monthly Spot Index of $1,075 per pound. Despite the recent upward momentum exhibited by the national composite price, however, a broader view demonstrates that this year saw significant price erosion. The U.S. Spot sank by 21.8% from the opening to the closing week of 2018. Additionally, for Q4, the national composite rate averaged $1,094 per pound, off by 32.8% compared to the quarterly average price of $1,417 per pound, documented in the same period in 2017. Yet, Q4 2018’s mean going rate is off by only 2.2% from Q3’s quarterly average price of $1,119 per pound. Rising rates in California, Colorado, and Oregon in the wake of the fall harvest period worked to mitigate the quarter-over-quarter downturn.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets jumped this week. Increases in California’s adult-use sector, as well as in Colorado and Nevada, outweighed marginal declines in Oregon and Washington. Sinking wholesale rates in the medical portion of California’s market, as well as in Arizona, were primarily responsible for pushing down slightly the national price for product designated for registered patients.   

January 2019 Forward closes up $25 to $1,150 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal decreased to 55.8 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 54%, 29%, and 17% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 63 pounds, 49 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,150 per pound, the January 2019 Forward represents a discount of 2.2% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,175 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    State Spot Index Falls by Almost 18% Over Course of 2018, Even as Compliance Costs Increased With Imposition of Licensing and Regulation

  • Colorado

    Weekly Composite Price Sees Smallest Proportional Decline of the Major Western Markets in 2018

  • Oregon

  • Composite Price Ticks Downward Slightly this Week, Off by 60% From Opening Week of 2018
  •  
  • Washington

  • State Spot Index Slides Over 55% from Beginning to End of 2018, Down Nearly 20% from Start of Q4
  •  

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

28 December 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — December 21, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published December 21, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.4% to $1,147 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $16 to $1,294 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $515 to $2,074 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 4.1 pounds from 4.2 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.53, and the simple average price was $2.85.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower grew this week, by 1%, while that for greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion. The relative frequency of transactions for outdoor flower was unchanged compared to last week. Warehouse-grown flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide increased by over 2% this week, while the relative volume of outdoor product contracted by the same proportion. The relative volume of greenhouse flower was stable week-over-week.  

The U.S. Spot Index rose for the second straight week, by 1.4%, to settle at $1,147 per pound. This week’s national composite price is the highest observed since early in H2 – in the week ending July 13th, specifically – and is up by 9.6%, or $100, from the current annual trough documented in the week ending November 9th. Still, as we close in on the end of 2018, this week’s U.S. Spot rate is off by nearly 20% year-over-year, compared to the national composite price of $1,431 per pound reported for the week ending December 22, 2017. This week’s uptick in the U.S. Spot was due largely to rising supply side rates in California and Colorado. Perhaps the most notable state-level price movement – the increase that took place in Massachusetts – had a minimal effect on the overall national average.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets slipped slightly this week. Declines in California’s adult-use sector, as well as in Oregon, Nevada, and Alaska, outweighed small increases in Colorado and Washington. Increases in wholesale rates in the medical portion of California’s market, as well as in Michigan, Massachusetts, and Illinois, were primarily responsible for pushing up the national price for product designated for registered patients.   

January 2019 Forward up $25 to $1,125 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal decreased to 56.4 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 53%, 29%, and 18% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 65 pounds, 49 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,125 per pound, the January 2019 Forward represents a discount of 1.9% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,147 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Composite Price Has Climbed 13% Since Falling to Harvest-Season Trough in Late October

  • Colorado

    Year-to-Date Average Rates for Indoor and Greenhouse Flower Down by Roughly 15% and 35%, Respectively, Compared to 2017’s Mean Prices

  • Oregon

  • State Spot Index Down 5.5% This Week, Largest Week-Over-Week Decline Observed So Far in Q4
  •  
  • Washington

  • Volume-Weighted Price for Greenhouse Flower Falls to Historic Low for Such Product in Any Market, Approaching $525 Per Pound
  •  
  • Massachusetts

  • State Spot Index Jumps by $100 Week-Over-Week, Up Almost 8% Since Beginning of Adult-Use Sales

Are you a licensed market participant in the U.S. or Canada? 

Do you support wholesale market transparency?

Become a member of our Price Contributor Network and receive discounted pricing and exclusive analysis!

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

21 December 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved