CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — May 17, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published May 17, 2019

The CCSI declined by 7.8% to C$6.96 per gram this week, from last week’s C$7.55 per gram. After a momentary uptick last week, prices returned to levels observed throughout April and May. This week’s price equates to US$2,346 per pound at current exchange rates.

 

After a challenging start to the legalization of dry cannabis last year, major licensed producers (LPs) are better prepared for the upcoming launch of vapes and edibles. While supply shortages and the slow opening of retail cannabis stores set the new industry off to a slow start, conditions might be different for phase two of the Canadian cannabis market with strong consumer demand for vapes and edibles. The official launch date has not been released, but it has been stated that these new product categories will commence sometime before October 17, 2019.

 

 

On Tuesday, one of the largest LPs, Aurora Cannabis, stated in its earnings call that it is working towards reducing its production cost while building inventory for the launch of edibles and vaping products. It is doing so by controlling costs and taking advantage of economies of scale as it makes strides towards its goal of building out a production capacity of 625,000 kg/year of dry cannabis.

 

With the start of the Edmonton Aurora Sky and Bradford facilities, Aurora’s production has increased to 150,000 kg and they have brought their cost per gram of dried product down to $1.42 from $1.92. The company anticipates continued reduction in its production and manufacturing costs with an expectation of it trending below $1 per gram. It should be noted that their average net selling price was also down to $6.40 from $6.80 per gram.

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

17 May 2019 Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — May 17, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published May 17, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.6% to $1,123 per pound. The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $23 to $1,236 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $510 to $1,961 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased 7% to 3.3 pounds from 3.1 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.48 and the simple average price was $2.72.

 

The relative frequency of trades for greenhouse flower increased by 2%. The relative frequency of transactions involving outdoor product decreased by the same proportion, while that for deals involving indoor flower was unchanged. Outdoor product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally grew by 2% this week. The relative volumes of warehouse and greenhouse flower both contracted by 1% compared to last week.  

 

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 1.6% this week to settle at $1,123 per pound, matching the national average composite rate documented two weeks ago. Rumblings of undesirable inventory in Oregon’s ostensibly oversupplied market and a shrinking pool of licensed cultivators in California appear to be contributing to the modest upswing in national wholesale prices. The Spot Indices of Washington and Nevada are also currently experiencing recoveries after sinking to historic lows for those markets earlier this year. Further upward pressure on supply side rates is originating from smaller medical cannabis markets that are experiencing significant increases in demand in 2019. Still, the U.S. Spot has demonstrated relative steadiness so far this year, underpinned by stability in pricing in California and Colorado, the country’s two largest markets.    

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets once again declined marginally this week, due almost entirely to a decrease in that sector of California’s market. Falling prices in Alaska also provided some downward pressure on the national rate.

 

Prices for medical product were up this week on rising rates in California, Arizona, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

June Forward unchanged at $1,035 per pound. The average reported forward deal size was 42 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 55%, 31%, and 14% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 36 pounds, 49 pounds, and 48 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,035 per pound, the June Forward represents a discount of 7.9% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,123 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • Review of Cultivation Licensing Data Shows Less Than 1,200 Distinct Growing Operations Now Hold Active, Valid Licenses
  •  
  • Colorado

    Total Retail Sales and Revenues from Adult-Use Market Both Reached New Record Highs in March, As State Spot Index Rose Slightly

  • Oregon

  • Retail Sales Revenue and Volume Down Slightly in April, Monthly Spot Index Off by Almost 7% from March
  •  
  • Washington

  • State Composite Price Down by 17% Year-Over-Year, But is Up by Over 23% Since Start of 2019
  •  
  • Arizona

  • Sales Volume to Patients Climbed to Historic Peak in April; Day of 4/20 Accounted for 10% of Total Monthly Sales

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17 May 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — May 10, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published May 10, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.6% to $1,105 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $26 to $1,212 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $455 to $1,969 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased nearly 6% to 3.1 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.44 and the simple average price was $2.67.

 

The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower increased by 2%. The relative frequency of transactions involving indoor and greenhouse product both decreased by 1% week-over-week. Warehouse flower’s share of the total reported weight moved contracted by 6% this week. The relative volume of outdoor product expanded by the same proportion, while that for greenhouse flower was flat compared to last week.

 

The U.S. Spot Index fell by 1.6% this week to settle at $1,105 per pound. The overall decrease in the national composite price was due to a greater prevalence of lower-priced outdoor flower observed in the supply mix this week. From a state-level perspective, declines in California and Washington State accompanied the downturn in the U.S. Spot, although going rates in smaller markets such as Alaska, Illinois, and New Mexico also provided negative pressure on the national average. It is possible that this week’s decline signals the beginning of a post-4/20 slide in wholesale prices that has been observed nationally and in virtually all of the major markets in both 2017 and 2018, as we detailed in our report for April 19th. However, regulatory turbulence in California and Michigan may result in upward pressure on wholesale rates in the weeks to come, while prices in the other major markets of Colorado, Oregon, and Washington have demonstrated relative stability recently.    

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets declined marginally this week, as decreases in California, Washington, and Alaska outweighed increases in Colorado, Oregon, and Nevada. Prices for medical product were down this week on declines in California, Colorado, Illinois, and New Mexico.         

June Forward unchanged at $1,035 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 41 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 56%, 31%, and 13% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 35 pounds, 49 pounds, and 50 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,035 per pound, the June Forward represents a discount of 6.3% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,105 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • State Spot Index Drops Sharply, Settling Below $1,100 Per Pound and Approaching Current Annual Low
  •  
  • Colorado

    Number of Adult-Use Storefronts Up Compared to a Year Ago, While Medical Dispensaries and Active Cultivation Licenses of Both Types all Decreased

  • Oregon

  • State Data Shows Retail Revenue and Flower Sales Volume Set New Records in March, but Wholesale Prices Still Declined Despite Historic Demand
  •  
  • Washington

  • State Spot Index Down Almost 20% Year-Over-Year Due Mainly to Declines in Prices for Greenhouse and Outdoor Flower
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Recently-Introduced Adult-Use Legalization Bill Will License New “Craft Cultivators” but Not Larger-Scale Growers, Raising Concerns About Supply

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10 May 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — May 10, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published May 10, 2019

The CCSI moved higher by 6.5% to C$7.55 per gram this week, from last week’s C$7.09 per gram. This is the first week since the one ending March 1st that we have observed price movement of a magnitude greater than 5%. This week’s price equates to US$2,546 per pound at current exchange rates.

 

This week we take a look at cannabis usage in Canada during the first quarter of 2019. Statistics Canada conducts the National Cannabis Survey each quarter to assess changes in demand amongst Canadians as recreational cannabis supply and availability increases. The survey reports 5.3 million or 18% of Canadians aged 15 years and older reported using cannabis in the last three months. This was 27% higher than the previous quarter, with 646,000 new individuals reporting cannabis use for the first time in Q1 2019. Initial data from the survey also indicates that more users obtained cannabis from the legal markets. An estimated 47% of cannabis users or 2.5 million Canadians obtained cannabis from legal sources in the first three months of 2019.

Cannabis use continued to be higher among males than females.

Alberta took the top spot for cannabis usage with 22% of the population buying either legal or illegal cannabis. Ontario and British Columbia followed closely, with Quebec showing the lowest usage.

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10 May 2019 Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — May 3, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published May 3, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 2.3% to $1,123 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $35 to $1,186 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $425 to $1,948 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased to 2.9 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.48 and the simple average price was $2.62.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower increased by 4%. The relative frequency of transactions involving outdoor product decreased by the same proportion, while that for greenhouse flower was unchanged. Warehouse product’s share of the total reported weight moved grew by 2% this week. The relative volume of greenhouse flower contracted by the same proportion, while that for outdoor product was flat compared to last week.

 

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 2.3% this week to settle at $1,123 per pound. The five largest adult-use markets – California, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and Nevada – all saw increases in their composite prices for the second consecutive week. As we have noted in prior reports, this year’s observations of depressed national wholesale prices in late March, followed by rising rates through April and into May, are the opposite of behavior documented in both 2017 and 2018. As we expand upon below, sharp decreases in the amount of licensed cultivators active in California’s regulated market may be contributing to upward price pressure in the Golden State, while retail demand in Colorado was up through the early months of this year after largely plateauing in 2018. Nevada’s Spot Index has been on the upswing for a month straight now, after sinking to a historic low for the state at the beginning of April.  

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets rose once again this week on increases in Colorado, Oregon, Washington State, Nevada, and Alaska. California again saw a week-over-week downturn in its adult-use sector. Prices for medical product were also on the rise this week on increases in California, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and Maine.      

November 2019 Forward initially assessed at $975 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 40 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 57%, 30%, and 13% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 32 pounds, 50 pounds, and 51 pounds, respectively.

 

The November 2019 Forward is initially assessed at $975 per pound, matching the October 2019 Forward. For context, the U.S. Spot Index averaged $1,076 and $1,075 in October and November 2018, respectively; and $1,421 and $1,412 in October and November 2017, respectively.

 

At $1,035 per pound, the June Forward represents a discount of 7.8% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,123 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

     

  • Number of All Active Cultivation Licenses Down Almost 50% from End of 2018
  • Licensed Retailers in Los Angeles Generated Over $375 Million in Total Sales Last Year
  •  
  • Colorado

    Monthly Spot Index for April is Lowest Observed So Far in 2019

  • Oregon

  • Composite Price Up for Third Consecutive Week on Rising Rates for Greenhouse & Outdoor Flower
  •  
  • Washington

  • State Spot Index Rises to Year-to-Date High for Second Straight Week, Settling Above $600 Per Pound for First Time in 2019
  •  
  • Massachusetts

  • April Adult-Use Sales Increase by 25% Month-Over-Month, But State Spot Index Down as Production Expands
  •  
  • Michigan

  • Licensed Dispensaries No Longer Permitted to Purchase Product from Caregivers, Must Obtain Tested Inventory from Licensed Cultivators and Processors
  •  
  • New Mexico

  • Health Department Update Shows New Plant Counts for Licensed Producers, Statewide Production Capacity Up 4.5X Compared to Previous Limits

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 May 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — May 3, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published May 3, 2019

The CCSI moved higher by 1.4% to C$7.09 per gram this week, from last week’s C$6.99 per gram. It appears price volatility has diminished as Canada’s market starts to work out supply issues. This week’s price equates to US$2,393 per pound at current exchange rates.

 

This week we take a look at retail sales by province. This data, which is released monthly by Statistics Canada, reports total cannabis store sales. We assume this includes both online and brick and mortar sales.

 

With five months of data now available, total sales each month have hovered around C$54 million, or C$1.8 million per day across Canada. February data shows a downturn in sales in almost every province except Quebec, Manitoba, and British Columbia. The largest drop was experienced in Newfoundland and Labrador where total sales plunged 28% compared to January.

Looking specifically at the distribution of February sales by province, we can see that Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta lead the way in sales, accounting for 63% of the retail cannabis revenues generated nationwide. This should be no surprise as these three provinces are home to 73% of Canada’s population.

Interestingly, licensed retailers in British Columbia, the third most populous province, generated only 4% of total Canadian sales in February. This discrepancy indicates that the black market is still capturing much of the province’s demand.

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 May 2019 Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved