U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — February 15, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published February 15, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.7% at $1,162 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $25 to $1,223 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $425 to $2,020 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 3.2 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.56, and the simple average price was $2.70.


The relative frequency of trades for both indoor and outdoor flower increased week-over-week, by 1% each, while transactions involving greenhouse product saw a 2% decline in this metric. Warehouse flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide grew slightly this week, by 1%, with the relative volume of greenhouse product contracting by the same proportion. Outdoor product is the only grow type to see its relative volume exceed its relative frequency of trades.   

The U.S. Spot Index increased by 1.7% this week to settle at $1,162 per pound. Oregon and Arizona were the only sizeable markets to see downturns in their composite prices this week, which were overwhelmed by increases in the Spot Indices of California, Colorado, Washington State, and Nevada. Smaller markets such as Massachusetts, Michigan, Illinois, and Maine have also applied consistent upward pressure on the national volume-weighted average this year. Based on historical sales data from more mature adult-use markets, January and February are typically months that see lulls in sales compared to the higher-demand months of December and March. While the U.S. Spot Index did dip in the latter weeks of January and the early ones of February, this week’s price is virtually identical to the rate of $1,165 per pound, observed at the outset of the year.  

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets jumped this week, primarily due to rises in California, Colorado, Washington, and Nevada. Declines in the medical markets of Arizona and New Mexico pulled down the national price for product designated for registered patients recorded this week, with assistance decreases in the smaller markets of New Hampshire and Vermont.         

March 2019 Forward unchanged at $1,100 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size decreased to 49.3 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 55%, 28%, and 17% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 53 pounds, 45 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,100 per pound, the March Forward represents a discount of 5.3% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,162 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Rising Volume-Weighted Prices for Indoor Flower Persist This Week, Now Up by Almost 7% from Beginning of 2019

  • Colorado

    Monthly Sales Increase in December 2018, Total Retail Revenues Reach $1.54 Billion for Last Year

  • Oregon

  • State Spot Index Drops to Within a Few Dollars of Historic Low Established in October 2018
  •  
  • Washington

  • Notable Homogeneity Observed in Pricing of Individual Wholesale Transactions Across All Grow Types
  •  
  • Michigan

  • State Officials Project About $300 Million in Retail Sales from Medical Cannabis Program in Period from October 2018 through September 2019, But Early Revenue Figures Reported to be Low
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Monthly Cultivator Revenues Reach Record High for State’s Market in January 2019 as State Spot Index Continues to Trend Upward

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

15 February 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — February 8, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published February 8, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.4% at $1,142 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $8 to $1,248 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $429 to $2,067 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 3.2 pounds this week from 3.3 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.52, and the simple average price was $2.75.


The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower increased week-over-week, by almost 2%, while transactions involving indoor and greenhouse product each saw an almost 1% decline in this metric. Similar movement was observed in regard to the relative volumes of the three grow types: That for outdoor flower expanded by 2% compared to last week, while warehouse and greenhouse product’s shares of the total reported weight moved each contracted by 1%.  

The U.S. Spot Index slipped by 1.4% this week to settle at $1,142 per pound. Although several mid-sized markets saw notable increases in their Spot Indices this week – including Massachusetts and Illinois – that upward price pressure was overwhelmed by declines in the composite rates of California, Colorado, and Oregon, with the West Coast markets just mentioned each seeing decreases of over $30 compared to last week. As of this week, the tug-of-war between the upward-trending national price for warehouse flower and the slowly-sliding U.S. averages for greenhouse and outdoor product saw the latter gain the upper hand. Elevated rates in California have for the time being buoyed the national price for indoor flower against sliding prices for such product in Colorado and Oregon this year.

The Trailing 4-Week Average of the U.S. Spot Index persisted this week in the very gradual downward slide that has so far marked 2019, though its negative momentum accelerated somewhat this week. At the moment, the national average is being pulled down by declines in the trend lines of the Spot Indices of California and Oregon. Nevada’s Trailing 4-Week Average price also applying negative pressure, even as sales in the Silver State appear to be growing, at least as of late last year, as we discuss below. The trend line of Michigan’s Spot Index continued to rise this week, as more product recalls likely have buyers looking for inventory that they can be assured will not run afoul of regulators, despite being technically allowed to sell untested product.       

March 2019 Forward unchanged at $1,100 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size decreased to 53.8 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 56%, 28%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 60 pounds, 48 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,100 per pound, the March Forward represents a discount of 3.7% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,142 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    BCC Data Provides Glimpse of Volume of Flower Traded in California’s Licensed System from July 2018 through January 2019

  • Colorado

    State Spot Index Sees Small Week-Over-Week Decline, First Downward Movement Since Early November 2018

  • Oregon

  • OLCC’s Supply & Demand Report Contains Insights on Inventory Management by License Type
  •  
  • Washington

  • LCB Reminds Producer / Processors that Volume Discounting in Deals with Retailers is Prohibited
  •  
  • Nevada

  • Cumulative and Adult-Use Sales Both Reach New Record Highs for State’s Market in November 2018, but Stable Spot Index Indicates Sufficient Supply
  •  

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8 February 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — February 1, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published February 1, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up nominally 0.2% at $1,159 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $3 to $1,256 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $458 to $2,054 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 3.3 pounds this week from 3.4 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.56, and the simple average price was $2.77.

 

National Transaction Stats were very stable week-over-week to begin February. Indeed, they were virtually unchanged from the week prior. Stability in the metrics illustrated in the chart below likely stems in large part from the general abundance of wholesale flower available in the major markets, along with the maturation of adult-use systems in some of those states. With plentiful inventory and greater understanding of sales trends, buyers do not feel compelled to snap up new harvests as soon as they come down and are less likely to be caught off guard by surges in demand.

The U.S. Spot Index held fairly steady this week, inching upward by $2 to settle at $1,159 per pound. Elevated rates for indoor-grown flower in California helped lift the national volume-weighted price for such product, which buoyed the U.S. composite rate against declines in prices for sun-grown flower. From a state-level perspective, positive trends in wholesale prices in Colorado, the country’s second-largest legal market, have been providing consistent upward pressure on the U.S. Spot Index through the early weeks of this year. Meanwhile, the newer adult-use markets of Nevada and Alaska appear as if consistent declines could be in the offing, though the opening of more storefronts and consolidation in the former later this year may disrupt current trends.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets increased again this week. Rising rates in that sector of the market in California, as well as in Colorado, Washington, and Massachusetts outweighed declines in Oregon, Nevada, and Alaska. For the second straight week, decreasing wholesale rates in the medical section of California’s market pulled down the national price for product designated for registered patients recorded this week.      

August 2019 Forward initially assessed at $1,015 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size decreased to 54.5 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 57%, 27%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 60 pounds, 49 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

The August Forward represents a decrease of 1% relative to the July Forward. For context, the U.S. Spot Index declined 2.0% from July to August in 2017 – from $1,614 to $1,582 per pound – and by 2.6% in the same span in 2018 – from $1,147 to $1,117 per pound.

 

At $1,100 per pound, the March Forward represents a discount of 5% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,159 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    State Treasurer and Legislator Introduce Plan to Lower Taxes and Stimulate Licensed Market, But its Passage into Law and Ultimate Impact Uncertain

  • Colorado

    Upward Trend in Wholesale Prices That Closed 2018 Continued Through January, But Pace of Increase Slowed

  • Oregon

  • Monthly Average Price for Indoor Flower in January was Lowest in State’s History at Less Than $900 Per Pound
  •  
  • Washington

  • Monthly Spot Index Rose by 2% in January; First Increase Since August 2018
  •  
  • Nevada

  • Cultivators See Almost 20% Decrease in Wholesale Excise Tax on Flower for H1 2019 Compared to Second Half of 2018
  •  
  • Florida

  • New Governor, State Lawmakers Suggest that Vertical Integration Requirement and License Caps May be Addressed this Year

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1 February 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — January 25, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published January 25, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.1% at $1,157 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $30 to $1,253 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $464 to $2,043 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 3.4 pounds this week from 3.5 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.55, and the simple average price was $2.76.


The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower grew this week, by 1%, while that for greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion. The relative frequency of transactions for outdoor flower was unchanged compared to last week. The relative volumes of warehouse and greenhouse flower both contracted week-over-week, by less than 1% each. Meanwhile, outdoor product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally grew by about 1% compared to the week prior.   

The U.S. Spot Index ticked upward this week, by 1.1%, to settle at $1,157 per pound, which was also the monthly average price for January. This month marks the second consecutive one in which the national monthly mean has risen, after slipping to its annual low for 2018 in November. Still, January 2019’s monthly rate is down by almost 14% compared to a year ago, when the U.S. Spot averaged $1,343 per pound in the same month in 2018. California and Alaska were the only two state markets covered by our reporting to see declines in their Spot Indices this week, while that of Nevada was flat compared to last week.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets rose this week. Rising rates in Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and Massachusetts outweighed decreases in that sector of the market in California, as well as in Alaska. Decreasing wholesale rates in the medical section of California’s market were almost wholly responsible for the dip in the national price for product designated for registered patients recorded this week.     

February 2019 Forward closing assessment up $30 to $1,150 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size decreased nominally to 55.2 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 56%, 28%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 62 pounds, 49 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,150 per pound, the February 2019 Forward represents a discount of 0.6% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,157 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Increased Relative Volumes of Lower-Priced Greenhouse and Outdoor Flower Pull Down State Spot Index After Steadiness in the First Three Weeks of 2019

  • Colorado

    Upward Trend in Wholesale Pricing Continues, Composite Price Up 18% From 2018’s Annual Low in November

  • Oregon

  • Growing Sales of Extracts and Infused Products May Help Draw Down State’s Oversupply of Flower and Trim
  •  
  • Washington

  • State Spot Index Reaches Highest Point Since Early November 2018
  •  
  • Massachusetts

  • State Spot Index Continues to Rise as Adult-Use Sales Increase, But Most Wholesale Deals Still Taking Place in Medical Sector
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Opioid Alternative Program Could Increase Demand in Coming Months in Market Already Seeing Wholesale Prices Above $3,000 Per Pound

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25 January 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — January 18, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published January 18, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.6% at $1,144 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $33 to $1,223 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $460 to $1,987 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 3.5 pounds this week from 4.0 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.52, and the simple average price was $2.70.

 

The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower grew this week, by 1%, while that for greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion. The relative frequency of transactions for indoor flower was unchanged compared to last week. Each grow type’s share of the observed volume traded nationally was virtually unchanged week-over-week. The only shift discernible in the chart below is a less than 1% increase in the relative volume of outdoor product.

The U.S. Spot Index decreased for the third straight week, sliding by 1.6% to settle at $1,144 per pound. A sizeable week-over-week decline in the national volume-weighted price for outdoor flower was primarily responsible for pushing down the national composite rate, with such product seeing the most notable price erosion in California and Washington State this week. On the state level, Colorado and Washington were the only two major markets to see increases in their Spot rates, and relatively modest ones at that. Meanwhile, the second-tier markets of Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan all saw week-over-week downturns in their composite rates. Prices in Massachusetts continue to rise, as they have since the beginning of adult-use sales in late November, but trading volumes remain relatively small in the young market and have not yet exerted notable influence on the U.S. Spot Index.

Three straight weeks of declines have caused the Trailing 4-Week Average of the U.S. Spot to reverse course this week, ending – at least for the moment – the upward trend that commenced in mid-November. The trend line of California’s Spot Index also saw its positive momentum disrupted this week, flattening compared to last week after rising for a period slightly longer than the national average. Additionally, the Trailing 4-Week Average of Nevada’s composite price changed direction this week, turning upward slightly after sliding gradually from late November through last week. Meanwhile, the trend lines of the Spot Indices of Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and Michigan, remained fairly steady relative to the courses that they were on to close 2018.     

February 2019 Forward up $20 to $1,120 per pound.* The average reported forward deal size increased nominally to 55.5 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 55%, 28%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 62 pounds, 49 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,120 per pound, the February 2019 Forward represents a discount of 2.1% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,144 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Permanent Rules Allowing Cannabis Deliveries Statewide Now In Effect May Help Regulated Market Capture More of State’s Latent Demand

  • Colorado

    November 2018’s Monthly Retail Sales Dipped to Lowest Levels Since May, But State Spot Index Rose in the Weeks Prior to Thanksgiving

  • Oregon

  • 2018 Flower Sales Volume Up by About 55% Compared to Year Prior, But Increased Demand Overwhelmed by Voluminous Excess Supply as Prices Continue to Fall
  •  
  • Washington

  • State Spot Index Rises for Second Straight Week to Highest Price Since the End of November, But Still Below $550 Per Pound
  •  
  • Michigan

  • Regulators Allow Unlicensed Dispensaries to Reopen, Purchase Inventory from Caregivers, and Sell Untested Product in Effort to Ameliorate Supply Shortage in New Licensed Medical System
  •  
  • Arizona

  • Monthly Flower Sales Volume Once Again Sets New Record in December, Annual Total for 2018 Up by 40% Year-Over-Year

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18 January 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — January 11, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published January 11, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down nominally 0.2% at $1,163 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $36 to $1,257 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $496 to $2,017 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 4.0 pounds this week from 4.1 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.56, and the simple average price was $2.77.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower grew this week, by 1%, while that for greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion. The relative frequency of transactions for outdoor flower was unchanged compared to last week. Warehouse product’s share of the total reported weight moved nationally grew by 3% this week, while the relative volumes of greenhouse and outdoor flower contracted by 1% and 2%, respectively. The relative volume of outdoor product is down from its harvest-season peak of 33%, where it settled over several weeks in November.

The U.S. Spot Index slipped downward for the second consecutive week, decreasing slightly, by 0.2%, to $1,163 per pound. Prices for indoor flower dipped notably in multiple major markets this week, which depressed the national average for such product and pulled down the U.S. composite rate. The nation’s two largest markets – California and Colorado – saw their Spot Indices hold fairly steady compared to last week, with both seeing nominal rises, with the same going for Nevada. Meanwhile, Oregon and Arizona were the two most sizeable state markets to see downturns in their composite prices, while decreases in the Spot prices of Illinois and New Mexico also applied downward pressure on the national average. Overall, this week’s U.S. Spot Index is down by 13.2% year-over-year, compared to the rate of $1,340 per pound documented in the week ending January 12, 2017.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets rose slightly this week. Rising rates in Colorado, Washington, and Nevada, with assistance from upticks in Alaska and Massachusetts, outweighed a decrease in Oregon. The composite price in California’s adult-use sector was virtually flat week-over-week. Sinking wholesale rates in Arizona, Illinois, and New Mexico were primarily responsible for a marginal decrease in the national price for product designated for registered patients.     

February 2019 Forward unchanged at $1,100 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size declined nominally to 55.2 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 55%, 29%, and 17% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 62 pounds, 49 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,100 per pound, the February 2019 Forward represents a discount of 5.4% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,163 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    State Spot Index Climbs Gradually in Early Weeks of 2019, Continuing Trend from End of 2018

  • Colorado

    December’s Monthly Spot Index Up Over 9% Compared to Prior Month, But Quarterly Composite Prices Virtually Flat from Q3 to Q4 2018

  • Oregon

  • Volume-Weighted Price for Indoor Flower Declines for Fifth Straight Week, Falls to Historic Low for Oregon’s Market
  •  
  • Washington

  • Average Spot Rate for Q4 2018 Down by 18% Compared to Previous Quarter
  •  
  • Massachusetts

  • Spot Index Rises for Twelfth Consecutive Week, Exceeding 2018’s Annual High Price
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Medical Market Expands Dramatically in 2018: Retail and Wholesale Revenues Up by 58% and 55%, Respectively, from 2017, Driving 17% Rise in Spot Index Over the Course of Last Year

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11 January 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — January 4, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published January 4, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index opens 2019 down 0.9% at $1,165 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $48 to $1,292 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $524 to $2,061 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 4.1 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.57, and the simple average price was $2.85.

 

The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower grew this week, by over 1%, while that for indoor product decreased by the same proportion. The relative frequency of transactions for greenhouse flower was unchanged compared to last week. Similarly, each individual grow type’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide was stable compared to the final week of 2018. One year ago, in the opening week of 2018, the relative volumes of warehouse, greenhouse, and outdoor product were documented at 46%, 37%, and 17%, respectively.

The U.S. Spot Index opened 2019 with a small decline, sliding by 0.9% to settle at $1,165 per pound. A decrease in the national volume-weighted price for indoor-grown flower was primarily responsible for pulling down the U.S. composite price. The national price for warehouse flower slipped mainly due to declines in the going rate for that grow type in all three West Coast markets. Also from a state-level perspective, week-over-week decreases in the Spot Indices of Oregon, Washington State, and Arizona outweighed upward price movement in California, Colorado, and Michigan. This week’s U.S. Spot Index is off by 22.5% year-over-year, compared to the national composite price of $1,503 per pound, documented in the opening week of 2018.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets declined this week. Decreases in California’s adult-use sector, as well as in Oregon and Washington, outweighed upticks in Colorado and Alaska. Sinking wholesale rates in Arizona, Illinois, Maine, and New Mexico were primarily responsible for pushing down slightly the national price for product designated for registered patients.   

July 2019 Forward assessed at $1,000 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal was unchanged at 55.8 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 54%, 29%, and 17% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 63 pounds, 50 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,100 per pound, the February 2019 Forward represents a discount of 5.6% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,165 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Licensed Cultivators Outnumber Retailers by About Four to One as of End of 2018, the Largest Disparity of Any Adult-Use Market

  • Oregon

    State Officials Predict that Incorporating Industrial Hemp Products into Licensed Cannabis Market Could Hurt Growers, but May Improve Bottom Lines of Processors, Wholesalers, and Retailers

  • Nevada

  • Total Retail Sales Top $50 Million for the First Time in October, But State Spot Index Ticked Downward Over the Course of the Month
  •  
  • Michigan

  • Regulators Force Unlicensed Businesses to Shutter with Close of 2018, Shrinking Significantly the Number of Operations Serving the State’s 300,000 Patients
  •  

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4 January 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — December 28, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published December 28, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 2.5% to $1,175 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $46 to $1,341 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $549 to $2,133 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 4.1 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.59, and the simple average price was $2.96.

 

The relative frequency of trades for greenhouse flower grew this week, by 1%, while that for outdoor product decreased by the same proportion. The relative frequency of transactions for indoor flower was unchanged compared to last week. Warehouse-grown flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide increased by 1% this week, as did the relative volume of greenhouse product. Consequently, the relative volume of outdoor flower contracted by 2% week-over-week.

The U.S. Spot Index finished 2018 with three consecutive weeks of positive movement, rising this week by 2.5% to settle at $1,175 per pound. For December, the national volume-weighted rate averaged $1,136 per pound, up by 5.7% from November’s mean monthly Spot Index of $1,075 per pound. Despite the recent upward momentum exhibited by the national composite price, however, a broader view demonstrates that this year saw significant price erosion. The U.S. Spot sank by 21.8% from the opening to the closing week of 2018. Additionally, for Q4, the national composite rate averaged $1,094 per pound, off by 32.8% compared to the quarterly average price of $1,417 per pound, documented in the same period in 2017. Yet, Q4 2018’s mean going rate is off by only 2.2% from Q3’s quarterly average price of $1,119 per pound. Rising rates in California, Colorado, and Oregon in the wake of the fall harvest period worked to mitigate the quarter-over-quarter downturn.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets jumped this week. Increases in California’s adult-use sector, as well as in Colorado and Nevada, outweighed marginal declines in Oregon and Washington. Sinking wholesale rates in the medical portion of California’s market, as well as in Arizona, were primarily responsible for pushing down slightly the national price for product designated for registered patients.   

January 2019 Forward closes up $25 to $1,150 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal decreased to 55.8 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 54%, 29%, and 17% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 63 pounds, 49 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,150 per pound, the January 2019 Forward represents a discount of 2.2% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,175 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    State Spot Index Falls by Almost 18% Over Course of 2018, Even as Compliance Costs Increased With Imposition of Licensing and Regulation

  • Colorado

    Weekly Composite Price Sees Smallest Proportional Decline of the Major Western Markets in 2018

  • Oregon

  • Composite Price Ticks Downward Slightly this Week, Off by 60% From Opening Week of 2018
  •  
  • Washington

  • State Spot Index Slides Over 55% from Beginning to End of 2018, Down Nearly 20% from Start of Q4
  •  

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28 December 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — December 21, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published December 21, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.4% to $1,147 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $16 to $1,294 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $515 to $2,074 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 4.1 pounds from 4.2 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.53, and the simple average price was $2.85.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower grew this week, by 1%, while that for greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion. The relative frequency of transactions for outdoor flower was unchanged compared to last week. Warehouse-grown flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide increased by over 2% this week, while the relative volume of outdoor product contracted by the same proportion. The relative volume of greenhouse flower was stable week-over-week.  

The U.S. Spot Index rose for the second straight week, by 1.4%, to settle at $1,147 per pound. This week’s national composite price is the highest observed since early in H2 – in the week ending July 13th, specifically – and is up by 9.6%, or $100, from the current annual trough documented in the week ending November 9th. Still, as we close in on the end of 2018, this week’s U.S. Spot rate is off by nearly 20% year-over-year, compared to the national composite price of $1,431 per pound reported for the week ending December 22, 2017. This week’s uptick in the U.S. Spot was due largely to rising supply side rates in California and Colorado. Perhaps the most notable state-level price movement – the increase that took place in Massachusetts – had a minimal effect on the overall national average.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets slipped slightly this week. Declines in California’s adult-use sector, as well as in Oregon, Nevada, and Alaska, outweighed small increases in Colorado and Washington. Increases in wholesale rates in the medical portion of California’s market, as well as in Michigan, Massachusetts, and Illinois, were primarily responsible for pushing up the national price for product designated for registered patients.   

January 2019 Forward up $25 to $1,125 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal decreased to 56.4 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 53%, 29%, and 18% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 65 pounds, 49 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,125 per pound, the January 2019 Forward represents a discount of 1.9% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,147 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Composite Price Has Climbed 13% Since Falling to Harvest-Season Trough in Late October

  • Colorado

    Year-to-Date Average Rates for Indoor and Greenhouse Flower Down by Roughly 15% and 35%, Respectively, Compared to 2017’s Mean Prices

  • Oregon

  • State Spot Index Down 5.5% This Week, Largest Week-Over-Week Decline Observed So Far in Q4
  •  
  • Washington

  • Volume-Weighted Price for Greenhouse Flower Falls to Historic Low for Such Product in Any Market, Approaching $525 Per Pound
  •  
  • Massachusetts

  • State Spot Index Jumps by $100 Week-Over-Week, Up Almost 8% Since Beginning of Adult-Use Sales

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

21 December 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — December 14, 2018

CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED December 14, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 3.8% to $1,131 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $63 to $1,279 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $514 to $2,044 per pound range. The average deal size was nominally unchanged at 4.2 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.49, and the simple average price was $2.82.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower grew this week, by 2%, while that for greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion. The relative frequency of transactions for outdoor flower was unchanged compared to last week, as was the relative volume of such product. Warehouse-grown flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide increased by over 2% this week, while the relative volume of greenhouse product contracted by the same proportion.    

The U.S. Spot Index jumped by 3.8% this week to settle at $1,131 per pound, the highest national composite price documented since July. While 12 of the 17 state markets covered by our reporting were observed to see week-over-week upticks in their Spot Indices, the overall increase in wholesale pricing at the national level was driven primarily by upward-trending rates in California and Colorado. The latter state’s wholesale market appears to be bucking last year’s trends, which saw prices fall to  what were then record lows to close 2017. Washington State was the only major market to see its composite rate decline this week, the continuation of a recent trend that has resulted in the repeated establishment of new historically low prices.

The national volume-weighted prices for flower to be sold in adult-use and medical markets both increased by magnitudes similar to the U.S. Spot Index this week. In the adult-use realm, only Washington State saw a week-over-week drop in wholesale prices. Most medical cannabis markets covered by our reporting was observed to see rising rates, apart from small declines documented in Arizona, Maine, New Mexico, and Vermont.  

January 2019 Forward up $35 to $1,100 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal decreased nominally to 57.2 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 53%, 30%, and 17% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 65 pounds, 49 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,100 per pound, the January 2019 Forward represents a discount of 2.7% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,131 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Prices for Indoor and Greenhouse Flower Rise to Highest Points Since April and May, Respectively

  • Colorado

    Spot Index Trended Downward in October as Total Retail Sales Contracted for the Second Consecutive Month

  • Oregon

  • State Data Shows 2018 Harvest Just as Large as Last Year’s, Resulting in Almost 1.3 Million Pounds of Unsold Product in Licensed System as of Early December
  •  
  • Washington

  • Volume-Weighted Price for Indoor Flower Reported to Fall Below $700 Per Pound for the First Time in Any Market
  •  
  • Nevada

  • New Adult-Use Retail Licenses Issued, Nearly Doubling Current Number of Open Shops; Eventual Effect on Wholesale Pricing Contingent on Numerous Factors
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Strong Demand Continues in November, While Wholesale Pricing Holds Steady

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 August 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved