CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — May 17, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published May 17, 2019

The CCSI declined by 7.8% to C$6.96 per gram this week, from last week’s C$7.55 per gram. After a momentary uptick last week, prices returned to levels observed throughout April and May. This week’s price equates to US$2,346 per pound at current exchange rates.

 

After a challenging start to the legalization of dry cannabis last year, major licensed producers (LPs) are better prepared for the upcoming launch of vapes and edibles. While supply shortages and the slow opening of retail cannabis stores set the new industry off to a slow start, conditions might be different for phase two of the Canadian cannabis market with strong consumer demand for vapes and edibles. The official launch date has not been released, but it has been stated that these new product categories will commence sometime before October 17, 2019.

 

 

On Tuesday, one of the largest LPs, Aurora Cannabis, stated in its earnings call that it is working towards reducing its production cost while building inventory for the launch of edibles and vaping products. It is doing so by controlling costs and taking advantage of economies of scale as it makes strides towards its goal of building out a production capacity of 625,000 kg/year of dry cannabis.

 

With the start of the Edmonton Aurora Sky and Bradford facilities, Aurora’s production has increased to 150,000 kg and they have brought their cost per gram of dried product down to $1.42 from $1.92. The company anticipates continued reduction in its production and manufacturing costs with an expectation of it trending below $1 per gram. It should be noted that their average net selling price was also down to $6.40 from $6.80 per gram.

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

17 May 2019 Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — May 10, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published May 10, 2019

The CCSI moved higher by 6.5% to C$7.55 per gram this week, from last week’s C$7.09 per gram. This is the first week since the one ending March 1st that we have observed price movement of a magnitude greater than 5%. This week’s price equates to US$2,546 per pound at current exchange rates.

 

This week we take a look at cannabis usage in Canada during the first quarter of 2019. Statistics Canada conducts the National Cannabis Survey each quarter to assess changes in demand amongst Canadians as recreational cannabis supply and availability increases. The survey reports 5.3 million or 18% of Canadians aged 15 years and older reported using cannabis in the last three months. This was 27% higher than the previous quarter, with 646,000 new individuals reporting cannabis use for the first time in Q1 2019. Initial data from the survey also indicates that more users obtained cannabis from the legal markets. An estimated 47% of cannabis users or 2.5 million Canadians obtained cannabis from legal sources in the first three months of 2019.

Cannabis use continued to be higher among males than females.

Alberta took the top spot for cannabis usage with 22% of the population buying either legal or illegal cannabis. Ontario and British Columbia followed closely, with Quebec showing the lowest usage.

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10 May 2019 Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — May 3, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published May 3, 2019

The CCSI moved higher by 1.4% to C$7.09 per gram this week, from last week’s C$6.99 per gram. It appears price volatility has diminished as Canada’s market starts to work out supply issues. This week’s price equates to US$2,393 per pound at current exchange rates.

 

This week we take a look at retail sales by province. This data, which is released monthly by Statistics Canada, reports total cannabis store sales. We assume this includes both online and brick and mortar sales.

 

With five months of data now available, total sales each month have hovered around C$54 million, or C$1.8 million per day across Canada. February data shows a downturn in sales in almost every province except Quebec, Manitoba, and British Columbia. The largest drop was experienced in Newfoundland and Labrador where total sales plunged 28% compared to January.

Looking specifically at the distribution of February sales by province, we can see that Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta lead the way in sales, accounting for 63% of the retail cannabis revenues generated nationwide. This should be no surprise as these three provinces are home to 73% of Canada’s population.

Interestingly, licensed retailers in British Columbia, the third most populous province, generated only 4% of total Canadian sales in February. This discrepancy indicates that the black market is still capturing much of the province’s demand.

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3 May 2019 Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — April 26, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published April 26, 2019

The CCSI moved higher by 4.5% to C$6.99 per gram this week, from last week’s C$6.69 per gram. This week’s price equates to US$2,361 per pound at current exchange rates.


Last week Health Canada released their preliminary summary of February sales and inventory data from the Cannabis Tracking System. In our analysis below, we focus on the growing inventory of finished and unfinished product. February data shows finished inventory growing by 18% from January levels to 23,739 kg, while unfinished inventory grew by 4% month-over-month, to 120,731 kg.

As can be seen with each report release, there are small changes made to the previous month’s inventory figures. Total inventory with the latest release sits at 144,470 kg, which equates to approximately 20.6 month of Canada’s dry cannabis usage at current sales rates.

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26 April 2019 Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — April 19, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published April 19, 2019

The CCSI moved lower by 5.9% to C$6.69 per gram, from last week’s C$7.11 per gram. This week’s price equates to US$2,272 per pound at current exchange rates.

 

This week Health Canada released their preliminary summary of February sales data from the Cannabis Tracking System. In our analysis below, we focus on sales of non-medical dry cannabis and oil, which have proven to be weaker than anticipated. In the last month many provinces have restated their cannabis revenue projections for 2019, adjusting them downward due to a flourishing black market with lower prices and more product variety.

 

The reports are labelled as preliminary, therefore data from the past months are adjusted with each release. In the most recent report, January sales for non-medical dry cannabis were restated higher by 8 kg/day, resulting in average daily sales of 179 kg for the month. Preliminary February sales figures came closely in line with both December and January at 178 kg/d.

Also in the most recent report, January sales of cannabis oil were restated higher by 2 litres/d, for an average daily sales of 95 litres. February sales figures came slightly lower than January at 91 litres/d.

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19 April 2019 Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — April 12, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published April 12, 2019

The CCSI moved higher by 2.5% to C$7.11 per gram, from last week’s C$6.94 per gram. This week’s price equates to US$2,418 per pound at current exchange rates.

 

The hype around cannabis legalization and the tax revenues that would pour into federal and provincial coffers seems to be slowly fading. Several provinces are restating their future revenue projections from this highly publicized new source of tax revenue.

 

The Ontario budget, released on Thursday, gave some new insight into the current state of the legal cannabis market in the province. Ontario, with 38% of the country’s population and an estimated 1.8 million cannabis users, cut their projected revenue from cannabis excise taxes to C$80 million from C$115 million for the 2019-2020 fiscal year. The cut reflects a black market still thriving due to volatile supply, limited retail locations, and higher than expected prices at the counter in the legal market. In reaction to the revised budget, Ontario politicians are engaging more deeply with Premier Doug Ford’s government and introducing changes to how cannabis is sold across the province to increase sales in the legal market.

 

The U.S. is closely monitoring the evolution of these markets in Canada and the Canadian case study could play a formative role in how some states move forward.

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12 April 2019 Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — April 5, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published April 5, 2019

The CCSI remained essentially flat this week at C$6.94 per gram, when compared to last week’s C$6.96 per gram. The price range has been relatively steady over the past six weeks, with only a $C0.18 difference between the low and high extremes observed in that span. This week’s price of C$6.94 per gram equates to US$2,359 per pound at current exchange rates.

 

According to Statistics Canada, 15.4% of the Canadian population above the age of 15 reported using cannabis, which works out to approximately 4.63 million people across Canada. Also from the Government of Canada, we are able to access nationwide retail sales figures. From the latest published data, we can see that C$53.38M in revenue was generated in the month of January. January’s sales are down by C$2.5M, or 4.5%, from those of December 2018.

 

When we merged the January sales data with the reported number of users, we are able to estimate the average spend per person. These calculations tell a very interesting story about the usage in each province, and have implications for the development of the legal market across the country.

British Columbia, known colloquially to be the cannabis capital of Canada, has a uniquely low spend per person. This implies that the lack of product inventory or higher prices at legal retail outlets have resulted in much of the population turning to the illicit market for their supply.

 

Ontario, the largest province with almost 38% of the Canadian population, has sales figures lower than Quebec and Alberta. The reason cannabis users have been spending less on legal cannabis could be due to the exclusively online sales format that prevailed until April 1st of this year. With the recent opening of 10 brick-and-mortar locations in Ontario and 15 more by the end of this month, we expect sales figures and spend per person to increase significantly.


Manitoba, Newfoundland & Labrador, Alberta, and New Brunswick each has a calculated spend of approximately C$25/person during January. Based on our price index, this equates to approximately 2.5 grams of usage per month.

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5 April 2019 Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — March 29, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published March 29, 2019

The CCSI dropped this week by 2.3% to C$6.96 per gram, from last week’s C$7.12 per gram. This week’s price of C$6.96 per gram equates to US$2,356 per pound at current exchange rates.


This week we once again turn to the Cannabis Tracking System report issued by the Government of Canada. With the addition of January data, we see that Canadian sales have been relatively stable since legalization, averaging about 7,070 Kg sold monthly in the non-medical and medical markets. In the five months of data available, non-medical sales have averaged 5,258 Kg across Canada. Non-medical sales are about three times higher than medical sales.

Total finished inventory, which is inventory that is packaged and labelled, sits at 19,520 Kg as of the end of January. This is unsold product stored at the licensed producer’s (LP) facility, or at an  online distribution or retail storefront location, as reflected in the chart below. This inventory equates to 2.7 months worth of sales at current rates [19,520 / 7,069 kg].

Total unfinished inventory, which is inventory that is NOT packaged and labelled for retail sale, sits at 114,628 Kg as of the end of January. This inventory equates to 16.2 months worth of sales at current rates [114,628 / 7,069 kg].

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29 March 2019 Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — March 22, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published March 22, 2019

The CCSI moved higher by 1.6% this week to C$7.12 per gram, from last week’s C$7.01 per gram. The CCSI has been quite stable over the past three weeks, hovering within a C$0.11 range. This week’s price of C$7.12 per gram equates to US$2,421 per pound at current exchange rates.


This week we focus in on the size of the Canadian cannabis market. The Government of Canada did a national cannabis survey to assess the number of people using cannabis in Q4 2018. The survey estimates cannabis use of all citizens over the age of 15 by age, location, and gender. The potential size of this market is roughly 29.3M citizens.

Based on the survey, approximately 4.63M people or 15.8% of Canadians aged 15+ reported cannabis use. Males were more likely to use cannabis with 20.1% reporting use, as compared to only 11.4% of females.

Looking at cannabis use by age, the 18 to 24 year old population was most likely to use with 28.1% having used cannabis in the last quarter of the year. The 25 to 44 age group was the second most likely age group to use with 23.1%.

Lastly, the same data was broken out by province. The four largest provinces – Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Alberta – showed total usage around 13.6% of the population. The four maritime provinces – Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland, and Prince Edward Island – showed higher usage with 15.7% of the population in those provinces reporting cannabis use.

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

22 March 2019 Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — March 15, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published March 15, 2019

The CCSI declined by 1.4% this week to C$7.01 per gram, from last week’s C$7.10 per gram. The average price over the past eight weeks is assessed to be C$6.60 per gram, which includes the excise duties. This week’s price of C$7.10 per gram equates to US$2,378 per pound at current exchange rates.

 

This week we provide an update on recent sales trends. On March 12th, the Government of Canada’s Cannabis Tracking System published an updated supply and demand report. The newly published data made some revisions to sales figures from Q4 2018 and added January 2019 data. Today we look specifically at recreational market sales, defined formally as “CRA-stamped cannabis products sold directly in the Canadian retail market (either online or in-person) for non-medical purposes.”

A closer look into sales from individual provinces provides more perspective on the current purchasing habits of consumers according to their jurisdiction. British Columbia’s (BC’s) December revenues were remarkably low, with total retail sales tallying only C$1.24M. This despite BC being the third largest province by population, although it is possible that it is also home to Canada’s most established illicit market.

 

Ontario’s December sales are similarly disproportionate to its population size. Ontario is home to 38% of the total Canadian population, but sales from November to December dropped by a staggering 14% to C$8.72M, 16% of the nationwide total.

 

The two noteworthy positive highlights were December sales growth in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which saw increases in retail revenues of 12% and 5%, respectively.As seen in the charts above, there was a substantial revision made to the reported sales figures for the Q4 2018 non-medical dry cannabis and oils categories (see yellow line). The Government does state that the reported data is preliminary and that “verification and validation of this data is ongoing.” A close analysis of the most current figures is especially warranted in this case as the overall changes are quite significant.

Total sales of non-medical dry cannabis in Q4 2018 were revised higher by 634 kg, or 4.2%, and total sales of non-medical cannabis oil for the same time period were revised higher by 1,128 litres, or 20.8%. Going forward we need to remember that large revisions are always on the table, especially as the Government builds error correction into their models and cannabis market participants become more accustomed to, and efficient at, reporting inventory and sales data.

 

The addition of the January data provided some further insight into sales trends. Non-medical dry cannabis sales for January dropped by 4.5% from December sales to 5,336 kg across Canada. January non-medical oil sales told another story. Total oil sales sharply increased by 10.7% to 2,873 litres. All this stated, we take this latest month of data with a grain of salt as potential revisions could be made in the future.

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

15 March 2019 Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved