U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published April 26, 2019
4-Year Anniversary Edition!
This week’s edition of the U.S. Cannabis Spot Index marks our 4-year anniversary of providing weekly wholesale cannabis spot index reports! We thank you all for your interest and support!
U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 0.8% to $1,098 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $28 to $1,151 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $405 to $1,897 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.8 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.42 and the simple average price was $2.54.
The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower decreased by 3%. The relative frequency of transactions involving greenhouse and outdoor product increased by 2% and 1%, respectively. The relative volumes of each grow type were unchanged compared to last week. In the four major Western markets, small shifts in each product type’s share of the reported weight moved were observed, with warehouse flower seeing slight increases in its relative volume in most of the states in question.
The U.S. Spot Index rose by 0.8% this week to settle at $1,098 per pound. In what was for the most part uncharacteristic post-4/20 behavior, the Spot Indices of the five largest adult-use markets – California, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and Nevada – all saw increases in their composite prices. Last year, only Colorado and Oregon experienced upticks in their Spot rates in the week subsequent to 4/20; of the five states under discussion, only Colorado did in 2017. Also notable this week were significant declines documented in the Spot Indices of several sizeable medical cannabis systems, among them Arizona, Massachusetts, Michigan, and New Mexico. While the increased demand associated with 4/20 is typically discussed in regard to adult-use markets, data from some medical programs such as Arizona has shown that patients take advantage of the “holiday” to stock up, which can depress demand subsequently.
The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets rose this week on increases in Colorado, Oregon, Washington State, and Nevada. California also saw a week-over-week downturn in its adult-use sector. Falling prices for medical product in Arizona, Massachusetts, Illinois, Michigan, and New Mexico were primarily responsible for pulling down the national rate for flower to be sold to patients.
May 2019 Forward closes up $15 at $1,065 per pound.
The average reported forward deal size was 43 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 58%, 28%, and 14% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were nominally unchanged at 40 pounds, 49 pounds, and 46 pounds, respectively.
At $1,065 per pound, the May Forward represents a discount of 3.0% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,098 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:
BCC Data Shows Only 5% of Test Batches Have Failed Required Screenings in 2019, Compared to Over 13% in H2 2018
Number of Active Medical Cannabis Cultivation Licenses Down 10% From a Year Ago as Sales and Patient Counts in That Sector of the Market Decline
- Outdoor Flower Observed to Account for Roughly Two-Thirds of All Product Traded in April, Emphasizing Continued Glut of Unsold Inventory
- Relative Volume of Outdoor Flower Jumped by 14% in the First Three Weeks of April, After Holding Fairly Steady Through Q1 2019
- Official February Sales Data Shows Small Decline in Demand After Months of Stagnation, Corresponding to Sliding Wholesale Prices in that Month
- Draft Rules for Adult-Use Industry Provide Blueprint for Future Market, But Questions Remain Regarding Product Testing, Other Issues
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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC
26 April 2019. Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC. All rights reserved