U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — December 21, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published December 21, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.4% to $1,147 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $16 to $1,294 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $515 to $2,074 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 4.1 pounds from 4.2 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.53, and the simple average price was $2.85.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower grew this week, by 1%, while that for greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion. The relative frequency of transactions for outdoor flower was unchanged compared to last week. Warehouse-grown flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide increased by over 2% this week, while the relative volume of outdoor product contracted by the same proportion. The relative volume of greenhouse flower was stable week-over-week.  

The U.S. Spot Index rose for the second straight week, by 1.4%, to settle at $1,147 per pound. This week’s national composite price is the highest observed since early in H2 – in the week ending July 13th, specifically – and is up by 9.6%, or $100, from the current annual trough documented in the week ending November 9th. Still, as we close in on the end of 2018, this week’s U.S. Spot rate is off by nearly 20% year-over-year, compared to the national composite price of $1,431 per pound reported for the week ending December 22, 2017. This week’s uptick in the U.S. Spot was due largely to rising supply side rates in California and Colorado. Perhaps the most notable state-level price movement – the increase that took place in Massachusetts – had a minimal effect on the overall national average.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets slipped slightly this week. Declines in California’s adult-use sector, as well as in Oregon, Nevada, and Alaska, outweighed small increases in Colorado and Washington. Increases in wholesale rates in the medical portion of California’s market, as well as in Michigan, Massachusetts, and Illinois, were primarily responsible for pushing up the national price for product designated for registered patients.   

January 2019 Forward up $25 to $1,125 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal decreased to 56.4 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 53%, 29%, and 18% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 65 pounds, 49 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,125 per pound, the January 2019 Forward represents a discount of 1.9% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,147 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Composite Price Has Climbed 13% Since Falling to Harvest-Season Trough in Late October

  • Colorado

    Year-to-Date Average Rates for Indoor and Greenhouse Flower Down by Roughly 15% and 35%, Respectively, Compared to 2017’s Mean Prices

  • Oregon

  • State Spot Index Down 5.5% This Week, Largest Week-Over-Week Decline Observed So Far in Q4
  •  
  • Washington

  • Volume-Weighted Price for Greenhouse Flower Falls to Historic Low for Such Product in Any Market, Approaching $525 Per Pound
  •  
  • Massachusetts

  • State Spot Index Jumps by $100 Week-Over-Week, Up Almost 8% Since Beginning of Adult-Use Sales

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

21 December 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

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