U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published May 10, 2019
U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.6% to $1,105 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $26 to $1,212 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $455 to $1,969 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased nearly 6% to 3.1 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.44 and the simple average price was $2.67.
The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower increased by 2%. The relative frequency of transactions involving indoor and greenhouse product both decreased by 1% week-over-week. Warehouse flower’s share of the total reported weight moved contracted by 6% this week. The relative volume of outdoor product expanded by the same proportion, while that for greenhouse flower was flat compared to last week.
The U.S. Spot Index fell by 1.6% this week to settle at $1,105 per pound. The overall decrease in the national composite price was due to a greater prevalence of lower-priced outdoor flower observed in the supply mix this week. From a state-level perspective, declines in California and Washington State accompanied the downturn in the U.S. Spot, although going rates in smaller markets such as Alaska, Illinois, and New Mexico also provided negative pressure on the national average. It is possible that this week’s decline signals the beginning of a post-4/20 slide in wholesale prices that has been observed nationally and in virtually all of the major markets in both 2017 and 2018, as we detailed in our report for April 19th. However, regulatory turbulence in California and Michigan may result in upward pressure on wholesale rates in the weeks to come, while prices in the other major markets of Colorado, Oregon, and Washington have demonstrated relative stability recently.
The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets declined marginally this week, as decreases in California, Washington, and Alaska outweighed increases in Colorado, Oregon, and Nevada. Prices for medical product were down this week on declines in California, Colorado, Illinois, and New Mexico.
June Forward unchanged at $1,035 per pound.
The average reported forward deal size was 41 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 56%, 31%, and 13% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 35 pounds, 49 pounds, and 50 pounds, respectively.
At $1,035 per pound, the June Forward represents a discount of 6.3% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,105 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:
- State Spot Index Drops Sharply, Settling Below $1,100 Per Pound and Approaching Current Annual Low
Number of Adult-Use Storefronts Up Compared to a Year Ago, While Medical Dispensaries and Active Cultivation Licenses of Both Types all Decreased
- State Data Shows Retail Revenue and Flower Sales Volume Set New Records in March, but Wholesale Prices Still Declined Despite Historic Demand
- State Spot Index Down Almost 20% Year-Over-Year Due Mainly to Declines in Prices for Greenhouse and Outdoor Flower
- Recently-Introduced Adult-Use Legalization Bill Will License New “Craft Cultivators” but Not Larger-Scale Growers, Raising Concerns About Supply
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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC
10 May 2019. Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC. All rights reserved