U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published May 3, 2019
U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 2.3% to $1,123 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $35 to $1,186 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $425 to $1,948 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased to 2.9 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.48 and the simple average price was $2.62.
The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower increased by 4%. The relative frequency of transactions involving outdoor product decreased by the same proportion, while that for greenhouse flower was unchanged. Warehouse product’s share of the total reported weight moved grew by 2% this week. The relative volume of greenhouse flower contracted by the same proportion, while that for outdoor product was flat compared to last week.
The U.S. Spot Index rose by 2.3% this week to settle at $1,123 per pound. The five largest adult-use markets – California, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and Nevada – all saw increases in their composite prices for the second consecutive week. As we have noted in prior reports, this year’s observations of depressed national wholesale prices in late March, followed by rising rates through April and into May, are the opposite of behavior documented in both 2017 and 2018. As we expand upon below, sharp decreases in the amount of licensed cultivators active in California’s regulated market may be contributing to upward price pressure in the Golden State, while retail demand in Colorado was up through the early months of this year after largely plateauing in 2018. Nevada’s Spot Index has been on the upswing for a month straight now, after sinking to a historic low for the state at the beginning of April.
The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets rose once again this week on increases in Colorado, Oregon, Washington State, Nevada, and Alaska. California again saw a week-over-week downturn in its adult-use sector. Prices for medical product were also on the rise this week on increases in California, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and Maine.
November 2019 Forward initially assessed at $975 per pound.
The average reported forward deal size was 40 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 57%, 30%, and 13% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 32 pounds, 50 pounds, and 51 pounds, respectively.
The November 2019 Forward is initially assessed at $975 per pound, matching the October 2019 Forward. For context, the U.S. Spot Index averaged $1,076 and $1,075 in October and November 2018, respectively; and $1,421 and $1,412 in October and November 2017, respectively.
At $1,035 per pound, the June Forward represents a discount of 7.8% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,123 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:
- Number of All Active Cultivation Licenses Down Almost 50% from End of 2018
- Licensed Retailers in Los Angeles Generated Over $375 Million in Total Sales Last Year
Monthly Spot Index for April is Lowest Observed So Far in 2019
- Composite Price Up for Third Consecutive Week on Rising Rates for Greenhouse & Outdoor Flower
- State Spot Index Rises to Year-to-Date High for Second Straight Week, Settling Above $600 Per Pound for First Time in 2019
- April Adult-Use Sales Increase by 25% Month-Over-Month, But State Spot Index Down as Production Expands
- Licensed Dispensaries No Longer Permitted to Purchase Product from Caregivers, Must Obtain Tested Inventory from Licensed Cultivators and Processors
- Health Department Update Shows New Plant Counts for Licensed Producers, Statewide Production Capacity Up 4.5X Compared to Previous Limits
Are you a licensed market participant in the U.S. or Canada?
Do you support wholesale market transparency?
Become a member of our Price Contributor Network and receive discounted pricing and exclusive analysis!
Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC
3 May 2019. Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC. All rights reserved