U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — November 8, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published November 8, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 0.5% to $1,452 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price declined $10 to $1,653 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $979 to $2,327 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased to 2.2 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.20 and the simple average price was $3.64.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower decreased by about 3% this week. The relative frequency of deals for greenhouse product increased by the same proportion, while that for outdoor flower was unchanged.

The U.S. Spot Index declined by 0.5% this week to settle at $1,452 per pound. This is only the second decrease in the weekly national composite price to be observed since the beginning of September. 

 

Previously, November has typically been the month in which the lowest monthly average Spot price of any given year has been documented. That trend that will almost certainly be disrupted this year even if a downward trend manifests going forward. Two weeks into this month, November’s month-to-date average composite rate is $1,456 per pound, the highest so far for 2019 and up by 1.7% from October. 

 

In 2018, the monthly average U.S. Spot was essentially flat from October to November, when it declined slightly from $1,076 to $1,075 per pound. Last year, weekly prices generally trended downward from early September through mid-November, before recovering to close 2018. The U.S. Spot rose by 12.2% from this point in 2018 to the end of last year.    

As we noted last week, positive trends in wholesale prices in the four major Western markets have in most cases subsided or been reversed recently. If such trends continue, then it is possible that the end-of-year price recovery that has been observed on numerous previous occasions may be absent this year.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers inched upward marginally this week. The slight rise was due entirely to an uptick in wholesale prices in Washington State, as every other state with a functioning adult-use system saw declines.   

 

The national price for medical flower sank this week. As noted above, most of the states covered by our reporting experienced decreasing wholesale prices this week, with markets such as Arizona and Illinois seeing notable declines in their Spot prices.  

December Forward unchanged at $1,450 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size decreased to 50 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 50%, 35%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 50 pounds, 42 pounds, and 61 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,450 per pound, the December Forward represents a discount of 0.2% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,452 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • Prices for Greenhouse and Outdoor Flower Remain Strong this Harvest Season, With Both Rising to New Annual Highs this Week
  •  
  • Colorado

    Announcement that Columbia Care is Acquiring The Green Solution Provides Insight into Market Share of One of State’s Largest Chains

  • Oregon

  • State Spot Index Declines for Second Straight Week; Prices for Greenhouse and Outdoor Flower Have Been Decreasing for Four Consecutive Weeks
  •  
  • Washington

  • Composite Price Has Trended Upward Slightly So Far in Q4
  •  
  • Massachusetts

  • Monthly Adult-Use Sales Decline for the First Time in September as Ban on Vape Products was Implemented Late that Month 

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

8 November 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

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