U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published September 27, 2019
U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 0.5% to $1,412 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $21 to $1,586 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $891 to $2,280 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 1.8 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.11 and the simple average price was $3.50.
The relative frequency of trades for each grow type was largely stable this week, with only a marginal decrease in that for indoor flower visible in the chart below. Greenhouse product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally expanded by almost 2% this week. The relative volume of outdoor flower contracted by the same proportion, while that for warehouse product was unchanged.
The U.S. Spot Index rose by 0.5% this week to settle at $1,412 per pound. While in previous years the attention of wholesale market participants at this point in the season has typically been focused on securing product from the upcoming autumn crop, the current crisis of individuals falling ill and even dying from vaping has the potential to inject significant uncertainty into legal cannabis markets. At this point, consumer response to warnings by federal and state regulators is not entirely clear.
Although demand for vape products could be suppressed overall, reports attributing the bulk of the problem to products from illicit sources could actually drive greater purchasing in legal markets, where products are tested for contaminants to varying extents. However, this week Massachusetts’ governor declared a temporary ban on all vape products, both cannabis and nicotine. If any of the major legal cannabis states follow suit, wholesale markets for trim and sun-grown flower used for extraction would likely be impacted, while demand for smokable flower could expand.
Trends in adult-use and medical cannabis flower pricing observed earlier this month were disrupted this week. The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers declined this week, due primarily to a significant downturn in the recreational sector of California’s market.
On the other hand, prices for medical flower jumped on increases in Arizona, Massachusetts, Maine, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Washington, D.C.
October Forward closes up $50 to $1,300 per pound.
The average reported forward deal size declined 1 pound to 46 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 57%, 28%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 43 pounds, 42 pounds, and 63 pounds, respectively.
At $1,300 per pound, the October Forward represents a discount of 8.0% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,412 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:
- Reports State Entirety of Legal Market Will Be Using Required Traceability System by End of October
Wholesale Prices Continue to Climb on Strong Demand, With Increased Market Consolidation Possibly Also Contributing
- Summer Weather Conditions and Those Forecast for October Appear Generally Favorable for Outdoor Growers
- State Tax Collection Data Shows Retail Demand Reaching Record Heights in August
- Adult-Use Sales Continued to Expand in August, but Temporary Ban on Vape Products Could Stymie Previously Consistent Growth
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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC
27 September 2019. Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC. All rights reserved